Drought Status Update for the Missouri River Basin

Key Points

• According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought remains across 40% of the states within the Missouri River Basin, impacting portions of Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri (Figure 1). 
• While there has been improvement since earlier this year, severe to exceptional drought (D2–D4) remains entrenched across Kansas (43% of the state) and Nebraska (28% of the state).
• Below-normal rainfall over the summer across portions of northern Montana and North Dakota, as well as eastern parts of the basin (Iowa, Missouri, eastern Kansas, central Nebraska), in addition to above-normal temperatures in some areas, drove the persistence and expansion of drought in these areas (Figure 2), particularly across northern North Dakota and Montana, where conditions have worsened over the last 8 weeks (Figure 3).
• Current drought impacts across the worst drought areas areas (Kansas, Nebraska, northern North Dakota, northern Montana, Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota) include limited soil moisture for vegetation and potential crop yield reduction, poor pasture conditions forcing supplementary feeding for livestock, reduced surface water on streams and ponds/lakes, and water quality issues for livestock ponds in North Dakota. USDA Drought Disaster Designations have been declared for 88 counties in Nebraska and 84 counties in Kansas.
• Runoff has been near normal on the Missouri River, but due to the ongoing drought conditions, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has reduced the service level to conserve water. The current service level is 35,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), which is 1,500 cfs below full service.
• After a significant heat wave during the week of August 21, temperatures cooled starting August 26, but forecasts are calling for near to record heat to return this weekend, and the heat will likely persist through at least mid-September (Figure 4).
• Western and upper portions of the Basin may see some limited precipitation from August 31–September 7, but widespread significant rainfall is limited over the next week (Figure 5). This dry pattern is likely to continue, as the precipitation outlook shows greater chances for below-normal precipitation for September 7–13 across more southern portions of the Basin (Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri) (Figure 6).
• The combination of hot and dry conditions through mid-September means drought conditions will likely persist and potentially worsen across parts of the Basin. Potential impacts include the continuation of current impacts listed above—along with moisture-stressed soybeans, which are in a critical growth stage right now—premature crop maturity (and associated yield loss), and increased fire risk.