Drought Status Update for the Northeast

Dry Wells in Western New York; Groundwater Deficits on the Vineyard and Nantucket

Key Points:

Lake effect snow and other precipitation events in the last week have taken the edge off the drought in western New York, with some relief to streamflows in the counties adjacent to Lake Erie. The hardest hit counties did not get enough precipitation to make up their months-long deficits.
Groundwater levels have been trending down in much of western New York since this spring. With short term forecasts predicting daytime highs in the 40s, unfrozen ground may allow for some recharge over the next week or so.
Prior to this week’s precipitation, the Massachusetts Cape and Islands—as well as the South Fork of Long Island—were experiencing 60-day rainfall departures in the 3 to 6 inch range. Groundwater levels have become a concern and dryness is expected to continue if these locations are missed by a coastal storm approaching for the later part of this weekend.
Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions in northern New York state shrank in coverage this week but were not completely eliminated. Some Abnormal Dryness (D0) remains along the shores of the St. Lawrence River in Jefferson and St. Lawrence counties.

U.S. Drought Monitor | Northeast

Northeast DEWS

Current U.S. Drought Monitor map for the Northeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) with data valid for December 12, 2023. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

7.8% of the Northeast DEWS is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions
2.4% of the Northeast is in drought (D1–D2).

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

Data valid: 12/12/23

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7.8%

of the Northeast is Abnormally Dry (D0)

17.5%

of New York is Abnormally Dry (D0)

5.6%

of New York is in drought (D1–D2)

Current Conditions for the Northeast

U.S. Drought Monitor: A Look Back at 2023

This full-year animation of Northeast U.S. Drought Monitor conditions illustrates dryness and drought (including some isolated Severe Drought) impacting almost all areas in the region at some time during 2023. The most extensive geographic coverage of dryness occurred during the summer months. Rainfall deficits building since the spring in western New York exacerbated the water crisis experienced by several counties west of the Finger Lakes this fall. Significant rain events over the summer generally kept dryness in check throughout New England, but some areas did miss out on significant replenishment of surface and groundwater. Recent impacts, including dry wells in western New York and low groundwater levels for the Massachusetts Islands, came as a result of these missed precipitation opportunities.

The Northeast began 2023 with pockets of Abnormal Dryness (D0), which were quickly removed. Dryness and drought emerged in late spring into summer. Currently, drought and dryness are present in western New York and the Massachusetts Islands. — Animation showing the progression of dryness and drought across the Northeast Drought Early Warning System in 2023 (through December 12, 2023), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Source: NOAA, USDA, NDMC. Explore more historical drought conditions on Drought.gov.

Accumulated Precipitation Departure from Normal

Deficits tracked at 5 locations in or near western New York State (3) and the Massachusetts Islands (2) reflect the progression of dryness and drought in these areas. (Black dots indicate missing data.)

Precipitation deficits have been increasing at sites in or near western New York, as well as the Massachusetts Islands. Martha's Vineyard has accumulated precipitation deficits of more than 15 inches below normal. — Departure from normal precipitation (inches) for the following sites: Silver Springs, New York (*blue*), Warsaw 6 SW, New York (*black*), Nantucket Memorial Airport, Massachusetts (*green*), Vineyard Haven Martha's Vineyard Airport, Massachusetts (*orange*), and Carlisle Water Plant, Pennsylvania (*red*). Valid December 14, 2023. Source: Applied Climate Information System (ACIS).

The National Weather Service's Buffalo Weather Forecast Office issued a Drought Information Statement on the November 30 and will update that statement on December 15 or as needed. View all active Drought Information Statements.

Real-Time Streamflow Conditions for New York

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, some real-time streamflows in western New York are still below normal.

At several USGS streamgages in western New York State, streamflows are below normal for this day of the year. — Real-time streamflow for New York, compared to historical conditions for this day of the year. Valid December 15, 2023. Oranges and red hues indicate below-normal streamflows, while blue and black hues indicate above-normal streamflows. Source: U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch. Map from Drought.gov.

Groundwater Levels in Western New York

Groundwater levels at Caledonia have been declining since April. Current depth to water level is near the 5th to10th percentile. — Hydrograph of continuous groundwater levels at USGS groundwater monitoring site Lv-330 near Caledonia, New York since January 2023. As of December 2023, groundwater levels are much below normal. This well has continuous hourly observations since March 2004. Source: USGS.

60-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for Massachusetts

This map highlights precipitation deficits experienced across the Massachusetts Islands over the last 60 days.

60-day precipitation totals are below normal for most of Massachusetts, with a few exceptions. The highest deficits are in eastern Massachusetts and the Islands. — This map shows precipitation for Massachusetts over the past 60 days as a percentage of the historical average (1991–2020) for the same time period. Green/blue shades indicate above-normal precipitation, while brown shades indicate below-normal precipitation.Valid December 10, 2023. Source: UC Merced, GridMET. Map from Drought.gov.

Groundwater Levels in the Massachusetts Islands

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), groundwater levels are much below normal on the Massachusetts Islands, including USGS sites at Edgartown (below) and Nantucket.

Groundwater levels gave been decreasing at Edgartown, MA since late spring. Current levels are in the bottom 5th to 10th percentile of historical conditions for this site. — Hydrograph of continuous groundwater levels at USGS at groundwater monitoring site ENW-52 near Edgartown, Massachusetts, since January 2023. As of December 2023, groundwater levels are much below normal. This well has been measured monthly since December 1976 and has been continuous (hourly observations) since May 2019. Source: USGS.

Drought Impacts in the Northeast

100 out of 665 homes in Bethany, New York did not have water during the Thanksgiving holiday. In mid- to late November, Genesee County authorities worked hard to schedule water truck deliveries for families whose wells went dry. Dairy farms and local businesses were trucking in water as well.
A December 10 Condition Monitoring Observer Report (CMOR) from Erie County, New York reported, “With recent precipitation, Lake Erie tributaries are finally at near normal to normal levels, with angler reports of appreciable runs of Steelhead.”
Recent Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) observations note ongoing drought impacts in Wyoming and Livingston Counties. (Thanks to Kirk Apffel, NWS Buffalo Weather Forecast Office, and Samantha Borisoff, Northeast Regional Climate Center.)
- From Wyoming County, New York: "Area ponds [are] still nearly empty however soil [is] starting to soften with recent rain.. my pond is very low 10 + feet down...some lower elevation ponds are starting to show recovery .. area fire [departments] use dry hydrants to access pond water...some area farmers are having to haul water for their cows...my garden did very poorly this year due to episodes of heat and lack of water...humidity has been low. My well is holding water quality seems OK."
- From Mount Morris, New York: "We are renovating our well this upcoming week. We lost water three weeks ago and then it came back. We have been very conservative with our water. A farmer near us had his well go dry and has been getting water from other sources for his livestock."

Consider reporting and sharing your local drought impacts to help inform the U.S. Drought Monitor authors, our neighbors, and drought mitigation response agencies.

View an interactive map of CMOR reports. See what your county is reporting and add to the impact dataset.

Looking Ahead: Outlooks for the Northeast

8–14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

In the next two weeks, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's outlooks suggest greater chances for below-normal precipitation across the Northeast.

Odds favor below normal precipitation across the Northeast. — 8–14 day precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal precipitation for the Northeast U.S. from December 22–28, 2023. Issued December 14, 2023. Source: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

All of the Northeast region will see increased chances for above-normal temperatures from December 22–28.

Odds favor above normal temperatures for the northeast. — 8–14 day temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures for the Northeast U.S. from December 22–28, 2023. Issued December 14, 2023. Source: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Week 3–4 Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks

Through the first week of 2024, there are equal chances for above- below-, or near-normal precipitation, except in the westernmost counties of New York, where slightly increased chances for below-normal precipitation exist.

For December 23 to January 5, odds favor below-normal precipitation in far-western New York, with equal chances of above, below, or near normal precipitation in the rest of the Northeast. — Week 3–4 precipitation outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation across the U.S. from December 23–January 5, 2024. Issued December 8, 2023. Source: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Through the first week of 2024, above-normal temperatures are favored for the northern third of Maine. The rest of the region should see equal chances for above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures.

For December 23 to January 5, odds favor above-normal temperatures in northern Maine, with equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures in the rest of the Northeast. — Week 3–4 temperature outlook, showing the probability (percent chance) of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures across the U.S. from December 23–January 5, 2024. Issued December 8, 2023. Source: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

What We Are Watching

The Susquehanna River Basin Commission is tracking low streamflow conditions in Bradford and Tioga counties. Shale drilling operations were impacted by restrictions to water access.
The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation announced regional workgroups to facilitate implementation of New York's 2023 Great Lakes Action Agenda.

Featured Resources

Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: Priority Actions and Research Needs
Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5)
NCA5: Drought and Climate Change in 10 Maps
A recording is now available for the University of Nebraska Medical Center’s Drought and Public Health Roadmap Webinar.
Dry Times: View the December 13 edition of NIDIS's bi-weekly drought newsletter, featuring articles on ENSO and the USGS Flow Photo Explorer.
The National Weather Service's Buffalo Weather Forecast Office issued a Drought Information Statement on the November 30 and will update that statement on December 15 or as needed. View all active Drought Information Statements.
From the National Drought Mitigation Center, view the latest Dry Horizons newsletter, as well as the November drought impact and climate summaries.

In the News: State-Reported Impacts

Northeast U.S.

December 5, 2023: CNN – Where’s the Snow?

Additional Resources

Look back at previous Northeast DEWS Drought Status Updates.
Northeast Drought Early Warning System Dashboard.
Sign up for NIDIS emails on our email sign up form.
Your local National Weather Service office.
NOAA Regional Climate Services Monthly Webinar Series (next webinar is January 30).
USDA Northeast Climate Hub.
USGS New England and New York Water Science Centers.
Explore drought information for your state:

Prepared By

Sylvia Reeves
NOAA/National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), CU Boulder/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

Samantha Borisoff, Jessica Spaccio, Keith Eggleston, Art DeGaetano
Northeast Regional Climate Center

Ellen L. Mecray
Regional Climate Services Director, Eastern Region, NOAA

Gardner Bent
USGS New England Water Science Center

In partnership with National Weather Service Offices of the Northeast and State Climate Offices of the Northeast.

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Northeast U.S. based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought status updates as conditions evolve.