Drought Status Update for the Southeast

Drought Improved for Most of the Southeast, But Long-Term Drought Impacts Persist in North Carolina and South Florida

Key Points

Abnormal Dryness (D0) and drought (D1–D4) conditions remain across much of the Southeast, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Severe Drought conditions or worse (D2-D4) persist mostly in the Carolinas and Florida.
- North-central North Carolina is the only area experiencing Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions, which hasn’t occurred in this part of North Carolina since March 2008.
A wetter pattern arrived in May, providing much of the region well-above-normal rainfall. This improved soil moisture and streamflows and reduced fire potential for most of the region. Portions of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina received over 175% of normal precipitation for the month of May.
Since June 1, precipitation has been mixed for the region. Alabama, Georgia, and portions of north Florida have received above-normal rainfall, while most of Florida, the Carolinas, and Tennessee have received below-normal rainfall.
While some areas have seen reduced drought impacts (Alabama, Georgia, and north Florida), areas with short- and long-term precipitation deficits are experiencing an increase in drought impacts. The most intense impacts are located in north-central North Carolina, where water resources are declining, and in South Florida, where hydrologic conditions are well below normal and fire potential and occurrence are elevated.
Late June and early July are forecast to bring near-normal to below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures. This may cause drought expansion or intensification in areas that received below-normal rainfall over the past 30 days (i.e., the Carolinas, the Florida Peninsula, and portions of Tennessee).
El Niño conditions have developed and are forecast to persist through winter. This is likely to produce below-normal tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean, which could result in below-normal rainfall in the Southeast this fall. If this occurs, drought conditions could develop or worsen in the region.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions for the Southeast U.S. | June 23, 2026

Current Map

Current drought coverage, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), valid for June 25, 2026. The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts the location and intensity of drought across the country. The map uses 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and National Drought Mitigation Center.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA, NASA

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

22.9

22.0

23.7

11.8

1.2

58.7

Data valid: 06/25/26

Learn More

59%

of the Southeast is in Moderate to Exceptional Drought (D1-D4)

90%

of North Carolina is in Severe to Exceptional Drought (D2-D4)

2nd Driest

January–May on record for North Carolina (since 1895)

Current Conditions in the Southeast

This update is based on data available as of Thursday, June 25 at 8 a.m. ET. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Drought (D1–D4) conditions still cover 59% of the Southeast, with 37% of the region in Severe to Exceptional Drought (D2-D4) conditions.
May precipitation was above normal for much of the Southeast, improving soil moisture and streamflows and reducing wildfire potential. Portions of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina received over 175% of normal precipitation for the month of May.
Since June 1, some areas of the region have experienced continual rainfall, allowing for significant drought improvement, particularly Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Tennessee. Unfortunately, other portions of the region (i.e. North Carolina and the Florida Peninsula) have experienced drier conditions this month, allowing for further drought impacts to occur.
North Carolina experienced its second driest January-May on record (since 1895), and June to date precipitation is below normal. As a result, the state is experiencing impacts to agriculture and water resources.
- Agricultural impacts: Extension agents report areas that did not receive adequate rainfall in late May are experiencing crop stress, particularly for soybeans. Pastures and hayfields have struggled since fall 2025 due to long-term dryness. With 53% of pastures rated in poor or very poor condition in the June 21 USDA Crop Progress Report, concerns about forage shortages have increased statewide.
- Water resource impacts: In the Triangle Region of North Carolina, water levels are low. Falls Lake and Jordan Lake are both below target storage. Water systems in the Catawba, Neuse, and Cape Fear basins have all enacted mandatory water conservation. The low levels at Little River Reservoir and Lake Michie have caused the City of Durham to move to Stage 2 water restrictions. Some groundwater systems have begun experiencing much higher than normal pumping times.
Most of the Florida Peninsula has experienced below-normal rainfall since the beginning of 2026. The longer-term deficits are exacerbated by a dry start to the wet season (starting May 15). June is the wettest month of the year for the Florida Peninsula, but much of the area has received below-normal rainfall, leading to drought impacts.
- Fire impacts: Florida has several county-level burn bans in place as the fire potential is high in some areas of the state. There are currently active fires in portions of the Florida Peninsula. Some of these fires have caused road closures, impacting transportation.
- Water resource impacts: According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Lake Okeechobee water levels are below normal at 10.97 feet, with levels near the water shortage management threshold (10.9 feet). Water levels in the Everglades are excessively low.

Find additional information on national current conditions, or explore conditions in your state.

June Provides Mixed Rainfall Conditions for the Southeast

For June to date, precipitation has been mixed for the Southeast. Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle have received above-normal precipitation, while the Florida Peninsula, most of South Carolina and Tennessee, and all of North Carolina have received below-normal precipitation. — June to date percent of normal rainfall for the Southeast, compared to historical conditions from 1991–2020. Warm hues indicate below-normal precipitation from June 1-24, 2026, and cool hues indicate above-normal precipitation. Data valid June 25, 2026. Source: **Midwestern Regional Climate Center cli-MATE**.

Low Water Levels in Jordan Lake, North Carolina

Photo of Jordan Lake in North Carolina, which has dropped significantly amid the area’s worst drought since 2007-08. The lake is below its target storage with broad areas of shoreline visible and boating hazards exposed. — Jordan Lake, a major water supply source for parts of the Triangle Region, North Carolina, has experienced a drop in storage elevation, exposing shorelines and boating hazards, such as an old road that was flooded during the lake’s construction. Photo by Elliot Wickham, CIROH/NOAA/NIDIS.

Portions of South Florida Are Still Experiencing Severely Dry Conditions

Eco Pond near Flamingo, Florida is experiencing severe hydrologic drought conditions. The pond has no visible water in it, with the pond-bottom exposed causing the soils to crack. — Eco Pond near Flamingo, Florida is experiencing severe hydrologic drought conditions. The pond has no visible water in it, and the pond bottom is exposed, causing the soils to crack. Source: National Weather Service’s Miami-South Florida Weather Forecast Office.

Looking Ahead: Drought Conditions and Outlooks for the Southeast

The next seven days (through July 2) are forecast to bring some rainfall to the region, generally less than 0.50 inches. Unfortunately, these totals are below normal for the period. Florida is forecast to receive totals ranging from 1 to more than 2 inches, which will be near- to below normal for many parts of the state (dependent on local accumulations).
A warm pattern is expected for June 30–July 4 across the Southeast. During this period, precipitation is forecast to be below normal for much of the region, especially the Carolinas. These conditions will likely cause drought to worsen in areas.
El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and NOAA has issued an El Niño Advisory. El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is currently gaining strength and predicted to intensify to a moderate or strong level this fall. There is a 99% chance of El Niño persisting into the winter, which is when El Niño impacts are typically strongest in the Southeast, often leading to wetter and cooler conditions. During strong El Niño events, the typical wetter winter pattern can start a bit earlier, during mid-to late fall. However, the impacts of El Niño on weather patterns are nuanced, change by season and location, and are not guaranteed.
An El Niño summer could suppress tropical storm development in the Atlantic Ocean, influencing NOAA’s below-normal hurricane season prediction. Much of the Southeast receives its rainfall from tropical storms in the fall, meaning drought conditions could redevelop or intensify. A lack of tropical storm rainfall last fall (2025) led to drought in the Southeast.
The Florida Peninsula has had a dry start to its wet season (beginning May 15). A below-normal hurricane season this summer could lead to drought intensification in the Florida Peninsula.

Rainfall Over the next 7 Days Will Vary Across the Region

Rainfall totals will vary over the next 7 days in the Southeast. Most of the region will receive less than 0.50 inches of rain over the period. Most of Florida is expected to receive over 1.00 inch of rain, with some localized areas receiving over 2.5 inches. — This map shows the amount of liquid precipitation (in inches) expected to fall over the next 7 days, according to the National Weather Service. Green to blue hues represent 0.01 to 1.5 inches, purple hues represent 1.5 to 2.5 inches, and red to orange hues represent 2.5 to 7 inches of precipitation. Source(s): National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center.

Below-Normal Rainfall Is Expected for Most of the Southeast in Late June into Early July

Odds favor near-normal to below-normal precipitation for the period across the Southeast. The highest chances for below-normal precipitation (40-50% chance) are in southeastern North Carolina and eastern/central South Carolina. — 6-10 day outlook for June 3–July 4, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (brown), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (green) precipitation across the U.S. Valid June 24, 2026. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Resources

Drought.gov State Pages

State pages on Drought.gov provide a one-stop shop for tailored state drought information and resources for each state. Find your state here. You can also find county and city-level information on Drought.gov.

National Weather Service Drought Information Statements

View the latest drought information statements from local National Weather Service offices on this interactive map.

State Resources

Alabama: ADECA Drought Planning and Management; Office of the Alabama State Climatologist; Alabama Drought Reach
Florida: Florida Climate Center; Florida Weekly Drought Summary
Georgia: Georgia EPD Drought Management; Office of the Georgia State Climatologist
North Carolina: North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council; North Carolina State Climate Office
South Carolina: South Carolina Drought Page; South Carolina State Climatology Office
Tennessee: Tennessee Weekly Drought Summaries; Tennessee Climate Office

Prepared By

Elliot Wickham
Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH)/University of Alabama, NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Corey Davis
North Carolina State Climate Office at NC State University

Chris Fuhrmann and William Schmitz
Southeast Regional Climate Center

Barry Baxter
National Weather Service Miami-South Florida

Special Thanks

This Drought Status Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southeast DEWS region based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve. NIDIS is an interagency program within the Climate Program Office, which is part of NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.