U.S. Caribbean Drought Sparks Fires and Water Rationing; Dry Fall Ahead.

Key Points

Regional: Following a wetter-than-normal late winter and early spring, conditions across the U.S. Caribbean dried significantly throughout May, June, and July. The region is experiencing near-record warmth and dryness, which has triggered grass fires and critically low stream levels. Depleting water supplies in major reservoirs and underground wells are causing significant economic losses across the agricultural sector.
Puerto Rico Impacts: In Puerto Rico, diminishing surface and groundwater levels have triggered water rationing for agricultural users in the south-central and southwest regions, as well as for residents in parts of the northeast. The frequency of brush fires has surged, with more than 300 reports in July alone. These wildfires have been notably intense and expansive, causing rare damage to local infrastructure. Furthermore, soils continue to dry out, and vegetation stress remains severe, particularly along the southern coast.
U.S. Virgin Islands Impacts: Across the Virgin Islands, vegetation shows clear signs of stress, and there is not enough water for residents to fill their cisterns. The dry soils and lack of precipitation impacted specialty, row, and fruit tree farmers.
Looking ahead: Drought conditions are likely to persist or expand through early fall. As El Niño strengthens in the Pacific, the probability of experiencing significant tropical waves or cyclones will decrease.

See below for additional details on current conditions, impacts (including streamflow and soil moisture), and outlooks.

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Caribbean | July 21, 2026

Current Map

U.S. Drought Monitor map for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as of July 21, 2026. The U.S. Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday to show the location and intensity of drought across the country.

The map uses 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA, NASA

U.S. Drought Monitor

Data valid: 07/21/26

Learn More

This update is based on data available as of 5:00 p.m. AT on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Drought Conditions

Rainfall deficits are widespread throughout Puerto Rico, with most regions receiving less than 60% of normal precipitation over the past 60 days. Southern and southwestern areas received less than 20% of typical rainfall, representing a deficit of 3–6 inches, while the El Yunque rainforest area reports levels 8–14 inches below average. Meanwhile, localized precipitation in the west-northwest helped mitigate drought conditions.
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands experienced record or near-record warmth and dryness. For example, San Juan in Puerto Rico is experiencing their driest July on record and fourth warmest on record, and Juncos is experiencing their second driest and warmest July on record. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, both Henry E. Rohlsen Airport (St. Croix) and Cyril E. King Airport (St. Thomas) recorded their driest June on record. This period also marks the second driest May–July for the islands since record -keeping began in the early 1950s.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates Severe Drought (D2) across Puerto Rico's southern plains from Cabo Rojo to Cidra, with Moderate Drought (D1) spanning the eastern and southern half, and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions in the north-central and northwest. The entire U.S. Virgin Islands territory is currently classified in Extreme Drought (D3).

Widespread Early Summer Dryness in Puerto Rico, with Localized Rain in the West

This map shows rainfall was well below normal along most of Puerto Rico. Only a small section in the west observed above-normal precipitation. — 60-day rainfall (inches) departure from normal. Valid July 20, 2026. Yellow, orange, and red hues indicate below-normal rainfall. Green, blue, and purple hues indicate above-normal rainfall. Source: NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service.

Agriculture, Forest, and Wildfire Impacts for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

Report your Impacts: To report the effects of dry conditions on your farm projects for future Drought Updates, use the Drought Condition Monitoring Observations and Reports (CMOR) tool or join the Caribbean Climate Hub reporting chat on WhatsApp.

Puerto Rico Impacts

North:
- Canóvanas: Producers report record-level dryness, resulting in dry, cracked soils. Fruit loss is occurring prematurely for breadfruit (pana) and avocados, with some avocados showing signs of dehydration. Cacao trees are experiencing leaf yellowing. Young banana plants are wilting due to prolonged water stress.
Central Interior: Lack of rainfall, dry conditions, and high temperatures led to extensive soil cracking across the region, impacting crop growth and health.
- Cayey: Fruit trees like breadfruit (pana) and rose apple (pomarrosa) are losing leaves, while others show stress despite blooming. Pasture growth has stalled for a month, leaving some grazing areas completely dry.
- Orocovis: Drought conditions have reduced citrus production below normal levels, with reports of pest infestations affecting mandarin trees.
- Caguas: Prolonged dry conditions and high temperatures delayed crop growth and negatively impacted leafy vegetables like lettuce. Some farmers are hauling water to prevent losses.
- Aguas Buenas: Producers report widespread soil cracking and unusually thin plantains. Producers are leaving weeds to conserve moisture, though soils fail to retain moisture even after rain. A wildfire occurred near agricultural lands.
- Gurabo: Local streams have dried up or seen significant reductions in flow.
- Lares: Insufficient rainfall has only wetted the soil surface, severely impacting new plantings. Young trees are failing or dying, leading to significant losses in stock and labor.
South: Pastures are drying, with reports of burned grass in Juana Díaz, Salinas, and Santa Isabel. Reduced streamflow in the Río Grande de Loíza (San Lorenzo to Patillas) has widened the river channel. Plantain crops in Juana Díaz remain stressed but are viable due to irrigation.
South and Southwest: Although dry conditions were expected during this time of year, the severity of the drought exceeded expectations in this region. Drought has impacted pasture production, crop growth, and reservoir levels, leading to economic losses.
- Irrigation district managers report continued declines in reservoir levels across the southern irrigation systems. Agricultural water rationing is in effect throughout the southern districts and is most severe in the southwest. The Southwest District has implemented water rationing for farmers (three days/week). In the Juana Díaz District, water flow has been reduced by approximately 5% as the Lago Guayabal reservoir continues to lose water. In the Patillas District, streams are contributing only 25% of their normal flow.
- Coffee beans are ripening prematurely, impacting quality and flavor.
- Ranchers face forage shortages in Lajas, forcing increased reliance on supplemental feed and depleting hay reserves.
- Sierra Bermeja forests show defoliation and soil cracking (1–2 inches).

Dry Conditions Across Puerto Rico

Three photos of drought impacts in Puerto Rico. Left: cracked soil in Puerto Rico. Right top: dry soil and vegetation in southwest Puerto Rico. Right bottom: dry soil on a ranch in southwest Puerto Rico. — Top left: Landowners report extensive soil cracking, with fissures reaching an estimated 8–10 inches (20–25 cm) in depth. Photo by Luz Jimenez, Finca Morivivi. Top right: Dry conditions in the forest of Sierra Bermeja, southwest Puerto Rico. Photo by Manuel Matos. Bottom left: Dry conditions in ranching lands, Lajas, southwest Puerto Rico. Photo by Neftali Lluch. Bottom right: Impact of drought conditions in a coffee plantation in Guayanilla, Puerto Rico. Photo by Jose Tato Roig Francheschini, Café Roig farm. Provided by the Southwest Soil and Water Conservation District (DCSAS).

U.S. Virgin Islands Impacts

Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, high winds and lack of precipitation are causing severe soil cracking and vegetation distress. Farmers report unusually harsh conditions as ponds deplete. Furthermore, irrigation supply delays due to tariffs are exacerbating stress on the agricultural community.
St. Thomas: Livestock and poultry farmers face limited feed access due to dying Guinea grass. Groundwater levels are not improving, and water access for agricultural needs remains limited despite filling the fairgrounds cistern with a 2,000-gallon water truck.
St. John: Farmers are preparing land for future crops while monitoring bananas for fungus. Ongoing erosion continues to render some roads impassable.
St. Croix: Limited rainfall has depleted ponds, driving up production costs. Farmers are actively implementing risk-reduction measures, including land preparation, fencing, and irrigation. Livestock producers are rotating animals and culling herds. Poultry farmers report that high water and feed costs are reducing profits, leading to a temporary pause in procuring new chicks until cooler weather and the return of natural grasses.

Drying Ponds on St. Thomas and St. Croix

Left: A photo showing ponds that are not full on a St. Thomas farm. Right: A photo showing dry vegetarian and distressed vegetation on a farm in St. Croix. — Left: Ponds on Greenridge Guavaberry Farm, on the island of St. Thomas, are drying up. Photo by Royce Creque, taken on July 21, 2026. Right: Vegetation distress from warm, windy conditions on Lang’s Peak, St. Croix. Photo by Mike Morgan, taken on July 22, 2026.

Dry Vegetation on St. John

This photo shows dry vegetatian next to the water at Trunk Bay in St. John. — Dry vegetation due to intermittent rains and windy conditions at Trunk Bay, St. John. Photo by Rafe Boulon, taken on July 22, 2026.

Puerto Rico Streamflow and Soil Moisture Impacts

Rivers and reservoirs are experiencing significant declines due to reduced recharge, with high temperatures and low moisture accelerating evaporation. Several reservoirs have already reached observational levels.
Groundwater levels are falling across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Many wells in southern and southeastern Puerto Rico have reached operational adjustment or critical levels, as monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey.
According to the Puerto Rico Agricultural Water Management, root zone soil saturation is critically low across the southern and northern plains and the western interior, with only isolated pockets of moisture remaining from localized rainfall.
Heightened fire danger has led to nearly 300 wildfire reports in this period, concentrated primarily across Puerto Rico’s southern and eastern municipalities.

Declining Streamflows Across Puerto Rico

This map shows that the 1-day average streamflows show are below to much below normal across much of Puerto Rico. Only a few streams in the south and interior are still showing near-normal streamflow values. — This map shows 1-day average streamflow conditions across Puerto Rico compared to historical conditions for the date in previous years. Red and orange hues indicate below-normal streamflows, green indicates near-normal streamflows, and blue or black hues indicate above-normal streamflows. 1-day average streamflow conditions are from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) river gage network, valid July 22, 2026. View information on groundwater levels along the South Coast of Puerto Rico, or view current U.S. Virgin Islands groundwater conditions. Map from Drought.gov.

Root Zone Soil Saturation Is Critically Low Across Much of Puerto Rico

This map shows mostly dry soils along the southern and northern plains, as well as for the eastern interior. Only a few areas in the west and western interior and small parts of the eastern coast show wet soils. — The latest assessment of root zone soil saturation for Puerto Rico. Blue hues indicate wetter soils, while orange and red hues indicate drier soils. Valid July 210, 2026. Source: PRAGWATER.

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

Forecast models indicate a greater than 70% likelihood of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from August through October 2026.
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) favors below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures over the next three months.
A strengthening El Niño event is projected to reduce the frequency of tropical waves and cyclones. This will likely exacerbate precipitation deficits, leading to persistent or worsening drought conditions across the region, consistent with the latest NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook.

Drought Is Expected to Persist or Develop through the Fall

This map shows that drought is expected to persist in the U.S. Virgin Islands and the south and southeast Puerto Rico over the next three months. Drought is forecast to develop across the remainder of Puerto Rico. — The Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will develop (yellow), remain (brown), improve (gray/beige), or be removed (green) from July 16–October 31, 2026. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Additional Resources

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices:

U.S. Drought Portal (Drought.gov):

USDA Caribbean Climate Hub:

Archive of weekly Puerto Rico drought records developed by the Puerto Rico Scientific Drought Committee
Drought and disaster assistance resources for tropical forestry and agriculture
Caribbean Drought Learning Network

Southeast Regional Climate Center:

Quarterly Climate Impact and Outlook Reports (June 2026), which includes Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands.

Prepared By

Emanuel Rodríguez-González
NOAA National Weather Service, San Juan Weather Forecast Office

Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos
International Institute of Tropical Forestry (IITF), USDA Forest Service

Christina Chanes
Virgin Islands Department of Planning & Natural Resources

Meredith Muth
NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Héctor J. Jiménez
University of Puerto Rico Office of Climatology

William A. Gould
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Caribbean Climate Hub, USDA Forest Service Research and Development

Elliot Sosa
U.S. Geological Survey, Caribbean–Florida Water Science Center (CFWSC)

Brad Rippey
USDA Office of the Chief Economist

Special Thanks

Puerto Rico Reporting Input: Special thanks to agronomists, extension agents, researchers, volunteers, ranchers, and farmers: Anayomari Torres, Luis Alexis Rodríguez Cruz, Manuel Matos, Jorge Alicea, Harry Ramírez, Rafael Silvestrini, Silmarie Crespo, Neftali Lluch, Dana López, Luz Jimenez, Mara Semidei, Zoelie Rivera, and Jose Tato Roig Francheschini.

USVI Reporting Input: Several individuals contributed to this report, and we acknowledge the following for their support: the farming community across the USVI, including VI Department of Planning and Natural Resources, Division of Fish and Wildlife, VI Department of Agriculture, as well as the USDA Office Chief Economist, National Parks Service in St. Croix and St. John, USDA Farm Service Agency, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service in St. Croix, Coral Bay Community Council, and the many volunteer drought reporters, volunteers, and farmers from across the territory.

About This Report

This drought update is issued in partnership between the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the University of the Virgin Islands. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands based on recent conditions and the upcoming three-month forecast. NIDIS is an interagency program within the Climate Program Office, which is part of NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.

NIDIS and its partners will issue these updates every two months. Subscribe for these U.S. Caribbean drought updates here.