Drought Status Update for the Southern Plains

A Very Wet Week has Improved, But Not Eliminated, Drought in the Southern Plains

Key Points

Over 5 inches of rain soaked eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and southwestern Arkansas.
Exceptional Drought (D4) persists in southeastern New Mexico, but has been removed from the rest of the Southern Plains region
Drought expanded into the South Texas Plains, and along the Rio Grande

U.S. Drought Monitor Conditions: Southern Plains

Last 3 Months

This animation provides a look back at drought changes over the last 3 months, from October 24, 2023 to January 23, 2024.

The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts the location and intensity of drought across the country. The map uses 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and National Drought Mitigation Center.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA

U.S. Drought Monitor

Data Valid: 01/25/24

Learn More

1.5%

of the Southern Plains is in Exceptional Drought (D4)

396 Weeks

drought has been present somewhere in the Southern Plains

8 Million

people in areas of drought in TX, OK, and KS

5 Inches

of rain fell in parts of eastern Texas from January 22–25

Current Drought Conditions in the Southern Plains

From January 22–25, over 5 inches of rainfall fell in parts of the drought-affected areas of eastern Texas, southwestern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana. This has improved, but not eliminated, drought conditions for these states.
The current U.S. Drought Monitor shows conditions as of the morning of January 23. The effects of heavy rains in eastern Texas since that time will be reflected in next week’s U.S. Drought Monitor.
January has been exceptionally cold across most of the Southern Plains.
Extreme Drought (D3) conditions have been in place in the Southern Plains region since August 2019.
Moderate (D1) or worse drought has been in the region since June 28, 2016. This is a new drought duration record for the Southern Plains, with drought lasting 396 weeks.
Extreme Drought (D3) continues over central Texas (including the Hill Country near Austin, San Marcos, and San Antonio), with downstream hydrological impacts. The area most affected by drought expanded southward into Webb and Dimmit Counties.
In Oklahoma, drought showed gradual improvement over the past month. Severe Drought (D2) persists in Osage, Pontotoc, Open Coal, Atoka, and Pushmataha counties.
Kansas has experienced a one-category improvement in drought over the last month, with parts of southwest Kansas now drought-free. The last remaining area of Extreme Drought (D3) is in Rooks and Graham counties.
Southeast New Mexico continues in an Exceptional Drought (D4). Chaves County and Eddy County have been in D4 drought since September.
Louisiana, while not in the Southern Plains DEWS region, has seen a 1- to 3-category drought improvement over the last month for the Florida Parishes. Exceptional Drought (D4) continues over parts of central and northern Louisiana.

U.S. Drought Monitor 4-Week Change Map

Key Takeaway: Much of the Southern Plains experienced minor improvements from late December to late January. Drought in central Texas expanded southward. Drought persists, unchanged, over the Chihuahuan desert region of western Texas and southern New Mexico.

From December 26, 2023, to January 23, 2024, southern Texas experienced a 1-category drought degradation. Northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas have seen a one category improvement, and parts of central and southern Texas have seen one to two category improvements. — U.S. Drought Monitor changes over the four weeks from December 26, 2023–January 23, 2024. Yellow/orange colors show where drought has worsened, and green/blue colors show where drought has improved. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center.

30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for the Southern Plains

Key Takeaway: January is usually the driest month of the year for Kansas, Oklahoma, and most of western Texas, including the Panhandle region. These states typically receive less than 5% of their annual precipitation in January. Therefore, even small precipitation events can show up as large anomalies without having a big impact on water availability. Central Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern Kansas had some winter snow and ice storms in mid-January, which provided above- normal precipitation for this time of year. Southern New Mexico and western Texas missed out on needed precipitation over the last month. Severe to Exceptional Drought (D2–D4) continues in these areas.

Over the 30 days to January 25, precipitation was above normal for Texas, Kansas, and parts of Oklahoma, with areas of below-normal precipitation extending across southern New Mexico, Central Texas, and eastern Oklahoma. — 30-day percent of normal precipitation for the Southern Plains, compared to historical conditions from 1981–2010. Red and yellow hues indicate below-normal precipitation and green, blue, and purple hues indicate above-normal precipitation. The map covers December 27, 2023–January 25, 2024, with precipitation data from AHPS. Source: Integrated Water Portal.

7-Day Departure from Normal Maximum Temperature

Key Takeaway: January has been exceptionally cold across most of the Southern Plains. Mean temperature anomalies for the first 20 days of January ranged from 3 ºF below normal along the Gulf Coast to between 8 ºF and 12 ºF below normal across parts of Kansas.

Temperatures and drought: Frozen soils prevent melting snow from replenishing the soil moisture. Deep freezes, as was experienced across the High Plains in January, tend to pause changes in drought conditions until the soil can thaw and snow can melt.

Mean temperature anomalies for the first 20 days of January ranged from 3 ºF below normal along the gulf coast to 12 ºF below normal across parts of Kansas. — Average maximum daily temperature for January 16–22, compared to the historical average (1991–2020) for the same 7 days. Negative values (*blue hues*) indicate colder than normal temperatures, and positive values (*red hues*) indicate warmer than normal temperatures. Source: GridMET, UC Merced. Map from Drought.gov.

Southern Plains Drought Impacts

The expansion of drought conditions in southern Texas, along the Rio Grande, has led to water conservation efforts in Corpus Christi.
Heavy snow across the Midwest, which fell in mid-January, will help ease drought conditions in Kansas when the snow melts.
Ongoing drought has impacted Louisiana crawfish supply.

Report your local drought impacts through a Condition Monitoring Observer Report:

Report Impacts

Texas Reservoir Levels

Key Takeaway: Reservoir levels in eastern Texas improved over the past two months, while reservoir levels in central Texas remained low. Lake Travis, for example, which provides water for Austin, continued a steady decline from 45% full last January to its current capacity of 37.7%. Generally across the state, reservoirs in the eastern part of Texas are mainly 70% or more full, while most reservoirs in western Texas are less than half full.

Generally across the state, reservoirs in the eastern part of Texas are mainly 70% or more full, while most reservoirs in western Texas are less than half full. — A map of Texas showing the percent full of each substantial reservoir in Texas. Valid January 23, 2024. Reservoirs in the eastern part of Texas are mainly 70% or more full, while most reservoirs in western Texas are less than half full. Source: Texas Water Development Board.

Oklahoma Reservoir Levels

Key Takeaway: Most reservoirs in the northeastern part of Oklahoma are generally more than 90% or more full, while most reservoirs in the southwestern part of the state are less than 80% full.

Most reservoirs in the northeastern part of Oklahoma are generally more than 90% or more full, while most reservoirs in the southwestern part of the state are less than 80% full. — Surface water storage for Oklahoma, valid January 23, 2024. Positive and negative numbers indicate the lake level (feet) above or below the normal pool elevation, respectively. Source: Oklahoma Water Resources Board.

Outlooks & Potential Impacts for the Southern Plains

The winter months are usually the driest time of the year for Southern Plains states, with January typically being the driest month of the year for Kansas and Oklahoma.
El Niño (the current state of the central Pacific Ocean) usually, but not always, means a wetter- than- normal winter for the Southern Plains, with the strongest influence over the Gulf Coast and far southern Texas.

1-Month Precipitation Outlook for February 2024

Key Takeaway: February precipitation shows an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-normal totals across much of the Southern Plains, according to Climate Prediction Center’s outlook. The exception is in far southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast, where odds slightly favor above-normal precipitation.

February precipitation shows an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-normal totals across much of the Southern Plains, according to Climate Prediction Center’s outlook. The exception is in far southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast, where odds slightly favor above-normal precipitation. — Precipitation outlook for February 2024, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (*brown*), near-normal (*gray*), and above-normal (*green*) precipitation across the Southern Plains. Valid January 18, 2024. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov

1-Month Temperature Outlook for February 2024

Key Takeaway: The February temperature outlook shows an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures across most of the Southern Plains, according to Climate Prediction Center’s outlook. The exception is far southern Texas, where odds favor near-normal temperatures for the month.

The February temperature outlook shows an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures across most of the Southern Plains, according to Climate Prediction Center’s outlook. The exception is far southern Texas, where odds favor near-normal temperatures for the month. — Temperature outlook for February 2024, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (*blue*), near-normal (*gray*), and above-normal (*red*) temperatures across the Southern Plains. Valid January 18, 2024. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov

Seasonal (3-Month) Precipitation Outlook for February–April 2024

Key Takeaway: Odds favor above-normal precipitation for Kansas, Oklahoma, and eastern Texas. The rest of the region shows an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation.

Seasonal precipitation outlook for February to April 2024. When focusing on the southern plains, odds favor above-normal precipitation for Kansas, Oklahoma and eastern Texas. The rest of the region shows an equal chance of above or below normal precipitation. — Precipitation outlook for February–April 2024, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (*brown*), near-normal (*gray*), and above-normal (*green*) precipitation across the U.S. Valid January 18, 2024. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Seasonal (3-Month) Temperature Outlook for February–April 2024

Key Takeaway: A cooler than normal season is likely for Texas’ Big Bend Country and Hill Country. Outside of this, there is an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures for the season (February–April 2024).

Seasonal temperature outlook for February to April 2024. When focusing on the southern plains, cooler than normal season is likely for Texas’ Big Bend country and Hill country with a 33-50% chance of below normal temperature. Outside of this, there is an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures for the season. — Temperature outlook for February–April 2024, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (*blues*), near-normal (*gray*), and above-normal (*reds*) temperatures across the U.S. Valid January 18, 2024. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Additional Resources

Regional Resources

Southern Regional Climate Center
Water Data for Texas
Oklahoma Mesonet
More local information is available from the following resources:

Upcoming Events

February 21, 2024: Woodward, Oklahoma. Weather and Climate Tools Training for Producers.
March 18–19, 2024: Liberal, Kansas. Ogallala Aquifer Summit.

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee, Adam Lang, Kelsey Satalino, and Eleanor Hasenbeck
NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, CIRES/CU Boulder

Gary McManus
Oklahoma State Climatologist, Oklahoma Mesonet, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Matt Sittel
Kansas Assistant State Climatologist, Kansas State University

John Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist, Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

William (BJ) Baule and Alison Tarter
Texas State Climate Office, Texas A&M University
Southern Regional Climate Center

Keith White and Victor Murphy
National Weather Service

Special Thanks

This drought status update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the offices of the state climatologist for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kansas. The purpose of the update is to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future drought updates as conditions evolve.