Current Conditions and Impacts for the Southern Plains

• Significant rainfall this week helped reduce drought and dryness in northeastern Kansas. However, Moderate to Severe Drought (D1-D2) remains in northern parts of the state, with a recent expansion of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions over eastern Kansas. Kansas Governor Laura Kelly updated drought declarations to include northern counties.
• Southern Kansas has seen drought improvement:
  • The region has experienced ample precipitation over the past two months. Sedgwick County recorded its wettest June on record, averaging just over 11 inches of rainfall.
  • Cheney Lake, which provides water for Wichita, has returned to near normal levels—96.87% of capacity as of July 16, 2025.
  • Despite the recent precipitation and reservoir rise, the City of Wichita remains in Stage 2 drought status based on the 12-month average at Cheney Lake.
• Western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle have experienced below-average precipitation over the last 30 days. This, along with high summer temperatures, has led to reduced soil moisture in these regions.
• The Coastal Bend region of Texas, near Corpus Christi, has seen below-average precipitation for the past 40 days, a drying pattern which is also reflected in upper-layer (1-meter) soil moisture values.
• Exceptional Drought (D4) contracted to a smaller area over the southern Edwards Plateau and the Big Bend region, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
  • Parts of the Texas Hill Country have been in Severe to Exceptional Drought (D2-D4) since January 2022, but precipitation during spring 2025 had been near normal.
  • The region experienced historic flooding on July 4-5, 2025, tragically devastating the region and leading to the loss of lives.
  • Despite the recent flooding, long-term hydrologic drought impacts remain. Local reservoirs saw increases of 2.5% (Medina Lake), ~1% (Twin Buttes Reservoir), and 18% (Canyon Lake). In the two days from July 4–6 alone, Canyon Lake reservoir levels rose 11 vertical feet, which is its largest two-day rise on record at that reservoir. However, reservoir conditions were so low that even with these large increases, Canyon Lake is only 68% full, Medina Lake is 6.3% full, and Twin Buttes Reservoir is 16.1% full.
  • Edwards Aquifer groundwater levels also saw an increase, but remain below Stage 3 drought levels. 

Developing Dryness in Northern Kansas and Southern Texas 

Streamflow Improved, But Problems Persist in Southern Texas and Northern Kansas

Outlooks and Potential Impacts in the Southern Plains

• The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks favor above-normal temperatures for Oklahoma and Texas with mostly near-normal temperatures for Kansas. Outlooks show mostly near-normal to above-normal precipitation chances through August 6, 2025.
• A heat wave is expected to develop in eastern parts of the Southern Plains. According to NOAA’s National Weather Service, most of Kansas, central/eastern Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas are at risk for hazardous heat from July 26–30. From July 31-August 1, NWS predicts a slight risk of extreme heat for most of Texas into southern Oklahoma. Many counties across Oklahoma and eastern Texas are already under a heat advisory.
• No clear climate signal is driving August climate outlooks, and there is an equal chance of above- or below-normal precipitation for the Southern Plains
• The Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlooks show a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures for August–October. The extensive rainfall in Texas in early July has reduced the chances for excessively high temperatures in areas where the rain fell during the rest of the summer.
• Precipitation outlooks show an equal chance of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation for most of the Southern Plains for the month and season ahead. The August–October precipitation outlook shows weak odds slightly favoring below-normal precipitation for northwestern Kansas.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.
  • Forecast models show ENSO-neutral will likely persist through summer. There is a chance that La Niña will develop in fall and winter 2025.
  • ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño nor La Niña is driving current weather patterns for the Southern Plains, and we lean more heavily on other climate patterns when making seasonal forecasts.
• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is still below -1.
  • A negative PDO has similar impacts on Southern Plains weather patterns as La Niña. When the two occur together, they amplify each other’s impacts. In the summer months, a negative PDO can shift rainfall eastward and push summer temperatures higher in the Southern Plains.
  • The PDO has been negative since January 2020 and reached a new minimum of -3.8 in October 2024, the lowest value in modern history.
• Seasonal outlooks and global climate patterns favor drought persistence and expansion—high summer temperatures may mean recent improvements are short-lived. 

Summer Will Likely Be Another Warm One for the Southern Plains