Drought Status Update for the Southern Plains

September Heat Intensified Drought Ahead of a Wet Start to October

Key Points

September 2026 was the warmest September on record for Southern Plains states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, and surrounding states of New Mexico, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Drought intensified across Oklahoma and northern Texas in early September.
84% of the region was in drought by the end of September, the largest area in drought since 2022.
Rain returned to the Southern Plains, leading to short-term drought improvements. However, long-term precipitation deficits remain.
A wetter-than-normal winter is likely. Winter precipitation will likely remove short-term drought and significantly improve long-term drought for most of the region.

This update is based on data available as of Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. MT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Record September Temperatures Across the Southern Plains

Statewide Avg Temperature Ranking

Statewide average temperature ranks for September 2026, based on a 132-year period of record. Red hues indicate above-average September temperatures, and dark red indicates a record warm September.

Record-warm September temperatures spanned the Southern Plains, Central Plains, and middle and lower Mississippi Valley.

Source(s): NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information

Statewide Average Temperature Rankings (September 2026)

Data valid: 10/08/26

Warmest

September on record for the Southern Plains

26.7 million

Southern Plains residents in areas of drought (estimated), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor

84%

of the Southern Plains DEWS was in some level of drought (D1-D4) by the end of September, the most since 2022

Recent Drought Conditions for the Southern Plains

Record warm September: September 2026 was the warmest on record for Southern Plains states of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, as well as surrounding states.
- The Kansas statewide average temperature for September was 8.7ºF above normal. September 2026 was the 13th consecutive month of above-average temperatures for Kansas.
- For Oklahoma, September was 9.7ºF above normal. This is 3.1ºF warmer than the previous September record.
- For Texas, September was 8.2ºF above normal. This was the record warmest September for 225 Texas counties.
- On average, the entire Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System was 8.8ºF above normal, compared to previous Septembers.
Drought expanded in September: The heat and low rainfall totals led to drought expansion through September. By the end of September, 84% of the Southern Plains was in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This is the largest area in drought since 2022.
- High temperatures and low soil moisture delayed winter wheat seeding in Oklahoma.
- Fall foliage is relatively muted this fall likely due to prolonged heat and lower rainfall.
Hurricane Polo brought heavy rain to the region: The remnants of Hurricane Polo combined with a slow-moving cold front and stalled over Texas, Oklahoma, and southwest Kansas from September 28 through October 3.
- For about a week, the Southern Plains faced severe weather, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and infrastructure disruptions. Dozens of tornados were reported during this week in Kansas and Oklahoma.
- On October 1, the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport experienced its 9th wettest day on record. Dallas County was in Exceptional Drought (D4) at the time.
Late September/early October rain helped with short-term drought, but did not remove drought: With the return of rain to the Southern Plains in the last week of September, short-term drought improved. However, one really good week of rain was not enough to compensate for a dry summer, and long-term precipitation deficits remain.
- Before the rain from Hurricane Polo, Dallas went 67 consecutive days (July 16-September 20) without rainfall, a tie for the second longest dry streak on record for north Texas.
- Texas Panhandle farmers reported the early October moisture they received in pooled on the surface and did not seep to soil depths.

Late September/Early October Rain Doesn't Make up for a Long, Dry Summer in the Southern Plains

GIF of 30, 60 and 90 day percent of normal precipitation across the south-central and interior western United States, valid October 17, 2026. At the 30-day analysis, substantially below-normal precipitation, with widespread areas receiving less than 25% to 50% of normal, extends across the lower Mississippi Valley, mid-South, and deep South Texas. The 60-day map shows below-normal precipitation, ranging from less than 25% to 75% of normal, covering much of the lower Mississippi Valley and mid-South, as well as southern and eastern Texas. In contrast, above- to well-above-normal precipitation, between 150% and over 300% of normal, extends across western Kansas, and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. The 90-day percent of normal precipitation analysis shows large areas of below-normal precipitation, ranging from less than 25% to 75% of normal, covering much of the Southern Plains, including most of Oklahoma and Texas. Dry conditions extend to the lower Mississippi Valley and mid-South—including Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. — Animation showing precipitation for the past 30, 60, and 90 days as a percentage of the historical average (1991–2020) for the same time period. Green/blue shades indicate above-normal precipitation, while brown shades indicate below-normal precipitation. Precipitation in the last week of September and the first week of October significantly improved short-term (30-day) precipitation deficits. However, long-term precipitation deficits (60 and 90 days) remain. Source: UC Merced, GridMET. Map from Drought.gov.

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for the Southern Plains

A wetter-than-normal winter is expected for the Southern Plains: El Niño-driven precipitation will likely remove short-term drought, and significantly improve (or possibly remove) long-term drought for most of the region.
- On average, the impacts of El Niño are most reliable farther south. However, winter 2026 will experience an unusually strong El Niño, and the pattern may not reflect past events.
Winter forecast confidence for Southern Texas: Computer model forecasts of the atmosphere and ocean from early October show a distinct possibility of dry conditions in southern Texas. The official precipitation outlook predicts above-normal precipitation over southern Texas, but with lower confidence. Above-normal precipitation is still favored there and elsewhere in the Southern Plains.

Winter Precipitation Outlook is Optimistic for the Southern Plains

From November 1, 2026 to January 31, 2027, above-normal precipitation is favored across the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, with probabilities ranging between 33% and 70%. The greatest likelihood of above-normal precipitation, between 50% and 70%, is focused across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and adjacent Gulf Coast areas. Probabilities between 40% and 50% cover the majority of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, while chances between 33% and 40% extend outward into eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado, Kansas, and parts of the Midwest — This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (green hues) or below-normal (brown hues) precipitation over the next three months (November 1, 2026–January 31, 2027). White areas indicate equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation. Source: Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Additional Resources

More local information is available from the following resources:

More state and regional information is available from the following resources:

To report or view local drought impact information:

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences/University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System

John Nielsen-Gammon, B.J. Baule, and Alison Tarter
Office of the Texas State Climatologist, Southern Regional Climate Center, Texas A&M University

Gary McManus
Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Oklahoma State Climate Office

Matt Sittel
Kansas State Climate Office, Kansas State University

Mack Morris
National Weather Service, New Braunfels, Texas

Special Thanks

This Drought Status Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System region based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve. NIDIS is an interagency program within the Climate Program Office, which is part of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.

Key Points

Statewide Average Temperature Rankings (September 2026)

Recent Drought Conditions for the Southern Plains

Late September/Early October Rain Doesn't Make up for a Long, Dry Summer in the Southern Plains

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for the Southern Plains

Winter Precipitation Outlook is Optimistic for the Southern Plains

Additional Resources

Prepared By

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)

Climate Program Office (CPO)

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

National Weather Service (NWS)

Climate Prediction Center

Southern Regional Climate Center

Office of the Texas State Climatologist

Texas A&M University

Oklahoma Mesonet

Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Kansas State University

Kansas Office of the State Climatologist

Key Points

Legend

Statewide Average Temperature Rankings (September 2026)

About

Updates

Recent Drought Conditions for the Southern Plains

Late September/Early October Rain Doesn't Make up for a Long, Dry Summer in the Southern Plains

Outlooks and Potential Impacts for the Southern Plains

Winter Precipitation Outlook is Optimistic for the Southern Plains

Additional Resources

Prepared By