News & Events

Updated 9/5: Summer 2025 Drought and Wildfire in 10 Maps

August 6, 2025

NOAA/NIDIS

Read Time: 9 minutes

This story was updated on Friday, September 5, 2025.

From the destructive Dragon Bravo Fire in the Grand Canyon to smokey skies in the Northeast due to Canadian wildfires, discover how drought and fire are impacting the U.S. this summer.

Drought and wildfire interact in numerous ways. Many of the conditions that cause worsening drought can increase wildfire potential. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires. When fire sparks in an area that is in drought, drought can affect the intensity and severity of the fire. For example, rapidly drying abundant fuels in forest understories and grasslands after a wet spring can feed larger fires.

This summer, hot and dry conditions are driving large wildfires in the Western U.S. Check out the 10 maps below to better understand the conditions underlying current large fires and what’s forecast for fire and drought in the coming months.

Current Conditions

Large Fires Burning in the West

Large wildfires are burning in the Western U.S. Many of these areas are also in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The largest partially contained (under 90% containment ) firesare currently the Dragon Bravo Fire (145,504 acres, 80% containment) burning in Grand Canyon National Park in Arizona, the Cottonwood Peak Fire (132,604 acres, 86% containment) in northern Nevada, and the Red Canyon Fire (124,709 acres, 80% containment) in central Wyoming, according to InciWeb.

Large wildfires are burning in every Western state except for Hawaii and Alaska. Extreme or Exceptional Drought (D3/D4) is present in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Montana, Texas, and Hawaii. — **This map shows active large wildfires from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC)** **Incident Management Situation Reports**, alongside current drought conditions from the U.S. Drought Monitor. This map only includes ongoing "large" wildland fires. It does not include prescribed burns, smaller fires, or other fires not included in NIFC's situation reports. View the latest **situation report** **for more information. Map:** **Drought.gov. Data Sources:** **National Interagency Fire Center**, **U.S. Drought Monitor**.

Dry Conditions in Parts of the West, Upper Midwest, and Northeast

Evaporative demand is a measure of the potential loss of water from the land surface due to atmospheric factors. Periods of high evaporative demand are connected to droughts and increased fire danger. Over the last month, the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) showed evaporative demand was high along the West Coast, Southwest, Upper Midwest, Northeast, and South Florida.

Above-normal temperatures, clear skies, high wind speeds, and low humidity increase evaporative demand, which leads to quicker drying at the surface. Reduced soil moisture leaves less water available for plants. When extended periods of low precipitation overlap with extended periods of high evaporative demand, vegetation can become critically dry and support rapidly spreading wildfires.

Evaporative demand was high in California, Nevada, the Four Corners states, Western Oregon, South Florida, the eastern Great Lakes states, and the Northeast. Evaporative demand was low in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains and the Carolinas. — The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is a drought monitoring tool that shows the anomaly in daily evaporative demand over a given period of time—in this case, the past 4 weeks. Evaporative demand is the atmospheric influence on the drying of the landscape, or "the thirst of the atmosphere." Unusually high evaporative demand can lead to moisture stress on the land surface, and ultimately to drought—even when precipitation has been near-normal. EDDI can offer early warning of agricultural drought, hydrologic drought, and fire-weather risk. Map: **Drought.gov** **Data Source:** **NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory**.

Smoke Reducing Air Quality Across the U.S.

Wildfire smoke can negatively impact air quality and harm human health. A number of large wildfires are burning in the Canadian provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The Pacific Northwest, portions of the central U.S., and much of the eastern U.S. is currently exposed to wildfire smoke, as smoke from these and wildfires in the West is drifting across the Nation. Air quality poor in the Pacific Northwest and portions of California, and air quality is moderate in most other smokey areas in the Nation.

The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is designed to communicate whether air quality is healthy or unhealthy. When air quality reaches unhealthy levels in your area, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend keeping outdoor activities light and short and heading indoors to cleaner air if you experience symptoms. Groups sensitive to air pollution should avoid the outdoors all together.

Air quality is poor in the Pacific Northwest, particularly eastern Washington. Moderate air quality is present in parts of California, Colorado, the Southern Plains, Midwest, and Appalachia. Elsewhere, air quality is moderate. — This map shows observed air quality conditions based on fine scale particulate (PM2.5) concentrations. Green dots indicate healthy air quality, while yellow, orange, and red dots indicate progressively hazardous air quality conditions. Map: **AirNow Fire and Smoke Map**.

Smoke plumes are covering most of the U.S., except the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southwest. The heaviest smoke conditions are in the Pacific Northwest and Appalachia. — **This map shows observed smoke plumes (gray) across the United States. Map:** **AirNow Fire and Smoke Map**.

Elevated Risk of Post-Fire Debris Flows in Parts of the West

Fires create danger after the burn, too. After a wildfire, communities and watersheds may face dangerous debris flows. Post-fire debris flows can occur in the years immediately after wildfires in response to high-intensity rainfall events. These debris flows are a danger to human life. They can occur with little warning and can carry enough force to damage structures, strip vegetation, and block drainage ways. Fires also alter watersheds and can reduce available water supplies for communities due to water quality problems in burned areas.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Post-Fire Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Viewer allows users to view or download post-fire debris flow hazard assessment data. The points on the map show the burn area locations where the USGS conducted hazard assessments from 2025 and prior.

Debris flow risk assessments are available for several mountainous areas in the Western United States that recently experienced wildfires. — The map above depicts areas that have been assessed for post-fire debris flows in the last three years. Click the image to view an interactive map that can display the likelihood and potential volume of debris flows as they exit the mountain front in response to a storm with a 15-minute peak rainfall intensity of 24 mm/hour. The models are designed to assess the potential for debris flow in the locations where debris flows form and get larger. Map: U.S. Geological Survey Post-Fire Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Viewer.

Dry Vegetation in the West, Midwest, and East Coast

Dry vegetation is one factor that influences how large and damaging a wildfire becomes. Currently, the Vegetation Drought Response Index, VegDRI, indicates there is dry plant matter across the Western U.S., in the Southeast, parts of the Midwest, and in the Northeast. This area of dryness in Arizona underlies the Dragon Bravo Fire burning in Grand Canyon National Park and surrounding areas.

Vegetation is dry and stressed across the West, but particularly in the Southwest. Vegetation is also dry in the Southeast and parts of the Upper Midwest. — **The** **Vegetation Drought Response Index**, VegDRI, depicts vegetation stress in the contiguous United States based on climate related variables and vegetation conditions measured by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Orange and red hues indicate vegetation stress. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, U.S. Geological Survey, High Plains Regional Climate Center, and U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Looking Ahead

Fire Weather Tomorrow in Parts of the West

Isolated dry thunderstorms are forecast in the Pacific Northwest tomorrow.

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center produces daily fire weather outlooks, which delineate areas of the continental U.S. where pre-existing fuel conditions, combined with forecast weather conditions, will result in a significant threat for the ignition and/or spread of wildfires.

Isolated dry thunderstorms are predicted in Oregon and Washington. There is no other fire weather forecast for tomorrow. — **The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center’s daily** **fire weather outlook** **for September 6, 2025, which shows areas of the continental U.S. facing a significant threat for the ignition and/or spread of wildfires. Issued September 5, 2025. Map:** **Drought.gov. Data:** **National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center**.

Potential for Large Fires Continues in the West, New England, and Hawaii in September

Above-normal risk of significant wildland fires is forecast in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, portions of California and Nevada, and New England this month, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). In October, this risk continues in Hawaii and portions of California and Appalachia.

Above-normal significant wildland fire potential indicates a greater than usual likelihood of significant fires, which are fires that require mobilization of resources from outside the fire event area.

Hawaii, portions of California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and the Northeast are likely to see above-normal potential for significant wildland fires in September. In October, this risk is reduced to Hawaii, portions of California and Oklahoma, and western NOrth Carolina, and in November risk of significant wildland fires is further reduced to western portions of the Carolinas, southern California, and eastern Oklahoma. — **The outlook identifies areas with above-normal (red), below-normal (green), and near-normal (white) significant wildland fire potential for the next four months. Map:** **National Interagency Coordination Center/National Interagency Fire Center**.

Seasonal Outlooks Favor Warm Conditions Across the Nation

Seasonal outlooks favor conditions conducive for wildfire in the Southwest and Southern Plains. Much of the Lower 48 and Alaska are favored to see above-normal temperatures over the next three months. The Southwest and New England have the greatest odds of above-normal temperatures. Portions of the Southwest, Central Rocky Mountains, and Southern Plains into the Mississippi River Basin lean dry over the next three months.

Above-average temperatures are favored across all of the country but the northernmost portion of the Great Plains along the Canadian border over the next 3 months. The Southwest and New England have the greatest odds of above normal temperatures. — This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (red hues), near-normal (gray hues), or below-normal (blue hues) temperatures for September–November 2025. White areas indicate equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures. Map: **drought.gov. Data Source:** **NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center**.

Dry conditions are favored in the Southwest and Central Rocky Mountains, through the Southern Plains to the Mississippi River. The greatest chances for dry conditions are in the Four Corners States and western portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Wetter conditions are favored in the Southeast, Northwest, and the western Coast of Alaska. — This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (blue/green hues), near-normal (gray hues), or below-normal (brown hues) precipitation for September–November 2025. White areas indicate equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation.Map: **drought.gov. Data Source:** **NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center**.

NOAA’s Next-Generation Fire System

NOAA is applying artificial intelligence to automatically detect fires in its Next-Generation Fire System, which is being integrated into firefighting operations across the Nation.

NOAA is also hosting a webinar series, “NOAA Fire Research: from Conditions to Impacts,” which showcases fire research activities and their impact on science and services to safeguard American lives and property. View upcoming webinars and recordings of past events.

Keep Up With the Latest Conditions and Outlooks

Find maps, publicly accessible data, and recent research about drought and wildfire on drought.gov. You can also subscribe to NIDIS emails for the latest regional drought updates, webinars, and news in our drought early warning system regions. To stay up to date on the latest drought conditions, sign up to receive drought alerts for your city/zip code when the National Weather Service updates their U.S. Drought Outlooks.