Current Conditions and Impacts for the Southern Plains

• February is typically one of the driest months across the Southern Plains. It is the driest month of the year for Texas and second driest for Kansas and Oklahoma, on average.
• Texas and Oklahoma are currently facing significant drought challenges across multiple regions, affecting water supplies and increasing wildfire risk.
  • Severe to Extreme (D2-D3) drought across central and eastern Oklahoma has prompted a series of county-wide burn bans, including in Tulsa County.
  • Exceptional Drought (D4) continued in Big Bend National Park, and returned to far southern Texas. Extreme Drought (D3) expanded again across parts of central Texas, including Austin and San Antonio and an area north of Houston, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
  • While the late January winter storm provided temporary relief to parched topsoil in the Panhandle and South Plains region of Texas, the underlying drought remains critical. The February 18 Texas A&M AgriLife report describes long-term drought taking a toll in the South and Coastal Bend regions of Texas, which has had little to no precipitation and a few hard freezes this winter. This damaged fruit and vegetable crops and forced producers to purchase supplemental feed, haul water, and continue deeper culls to their herds.  
  • Combined capacity at Lake Corpus Christi and Choke Canyon Reservoirs fell to 9.3%. Along the Rio Grande, Elephant Butte reservoir is at 11.8%, Amistad is at 32.9%, and Falcon is at 20.6% of capacity.
• Of the three states in the Southern Plains, Kansas has the least drought so far this winter. Parts of central and eastern Kansas received rainfall in excess of 4 inches in late February. However, Moderate to Severe Drought (D1 to D2) is present in the southeast, with Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate Drought (D1) conditions in the southwest where wildland fires spread rapidly in late February.
• While final numbers are not in yet, large parts of the region, including Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, are likely to see both winter and February rank within the top five warmest compared to historical records.
• Soil moisture across most of Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern Kansas is below the 10th percentile.
• The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) spiked in mid-February over southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. This indicated rapid drying of the landscape in the week prior to and during the spread of very large fires in these areas.
• Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are dealing with major wildland fires this winter.
  • Fire season in the southern High Plains usually peaks from February to April, mostly due to dormant grasses and seasonably low precipitation through the winter months. Dry and warm conditions this season were additional factors to the normally higher fire danger.
  • The Ranger Road Fire is the largest U.S. wildfire in 2026, so far. It ignited on February 17, 2026, near Beaver, Oklahoma, and exploded in size due to extreme 65+ mph wind gusts and dry grasslands. 
    • The fire burned 283,283 acres (442.6 square miles) in Beaver and Harper Counties (Oklahoma) and Clark, Comanche, and Meade Counties (Kansas).
    • Agricultural impacts include damaged pasture land and fences and the loss of hundreds of livestock. The Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association has established a relief fund for fire-affected producers. 
    • The mesonet site in Ashland, Kansas, was burned by this fire, but it was quickly brought back online.
  • As of February 25, 2026, the Texas A&M Forest Service reported 60 active fires in Texas (most are contained), and outdoor burn bans have been established in 172 Texas counties.

Wildfires Burn Across the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Southern Kansas

60-Day Precipitation Near 0 Inches for Far South Texas, Below 25th Percentile for the Panhandles Region

High Evaporative Demand Compounds Existing Dry Conditions

Soil Moisture Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Eastern Kansas Is Below the 10th Percentile for February

Outlooks and Potential Impacts in the Southern Plains

• The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 and  8-14 day outlooks favor warm and possibly wet weather across the Southern Plains, signaling a pattern shift in early March. Parts of central and eastern Oklahoma should see some short-term drought improvement from this shift.
• March climate outlooks for the Southern Plains show slightly elevated chances of below-normal precipitation for the western High Plains area with near equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation elsewhere. Above-normal temperatures for the month are likely across the whole region. 
• Spring is typically a wetter season than winter across the Southern Plains states, and spring weather patterns can make or break a drought. The March to May outlooks show below-normal precipitation is most likely (40-50% chance) for far western Texas, western Kansas, and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A warm spring is likely (more than 40% chance) for most of Texas with lower odds (30-40%) for Oklahoma and Kansas. 
•  The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal drought outlooks and global climate patterns favor drought persistence along the Rio Grande and drought expansion for far western Texas through spring.
• A La Niña Advisory is on its way out.
  • La Niña conditions—which historically increase chances of dry winters in the Southern Plains—are waning and expected to transition to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral very soon, with ENSO-neutral conditions likely persisting through the summer.
  • An El Niño pattern is possible by late summer or early fall. El Niño has the strongest influence during the winter months, usually (but not always) bringing wet weather to Texas. Sometimes, when El Niño is present in the summer, there is an eastward shift to the Southwest Monsoon.  

Wet Weather in Early March Should Bring Short-Term Drought Improvement

March, as a Whole, Does Not Strongly Favor Wetter or Drier Conditions