Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Regional Drought Update Date
July 29, 2026
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Drought Status Update for the Southern Plains

DEWS Regions:
Southern Plains
States:
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
Update Status:

NIDIS and partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.

Inconsistent Summer Precipitation Across the Southern Plains

Key Points

  • Rainfall has been highly inconsistent across the Southern Plains this summer. 
  • High temperatures (in excess of 100ºF) and periods of high evaporation have reduced soil moisture across northern Texas and western Oklahoma.
  • Heavy rainfall and flooding in central Texas in mid-July mostly missed drought-affected areas.
  • Southern Kansas had drought in May, floods in June, and then drought with intense heat in July, creating poor growing and harvesting conditions for spring wheat and other crops. 
  • Though drought conditions have improved in the Southern Plains overall since June, portions of Northern Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas continue to face significant drought challenges, including increasing wildfire risk and harming crops, rangelands and water supplies.
  • Long-range forecasts suggest high temperatures are likely to continue through August to October. There are near equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation in this time. 
  • Long-term drought in eastern Texas is expected to improve. Long-term drought in western Oklahoma and Kansas will likely persist into early fall.
  • A strong El Niño event is expected to bring a wetter and cooler winter to Texas. 

This update is based on data available as of Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. MT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Conditions
Recent Precipitation for the Southern Plains
30-Day Percent of Normal

Precipitation Shown as a Percentage of Normal Conditions
100%

Data valid: 07/25/26
GridMET precipitation details and information: Learn More
Main Stats
26.5%
of the Southern Plains is experiencing some level of drought (41% less than two months ago)
4.1 million
Southern Plains residents in areas of drought (estimated), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor
1,152%
of normal July rainfall at one rainfall station in Uvalde County, Texas (about one year of rainfall in one week)

Current Conditions and Impacts for the Southern Plains

  • Rainfall has been highly inconsistent across the Southern Plains this summer. 
    • While some areas benefited from localized storms, high temperatures (reaching 100°F or higher) and strong winds rapidly depleted soil moisture, stressing crops and pastures.
    • Intense rainfall in the Texas Hill Country led to flash floods. Month-to-date rainfall totals in excess of 20 inches north of Uvalde and near Kerrville, Texas. Most rain fell between July 12-18 with the heaviest rain on July 14-16.
    • Texas Hill Country floodwaters moving downstream may provide some relief for drought-impacted Corpus Christi as surface reservoirs capture excess water.
  • Exceptional Drought (D4) persists in western Oklahoma.
  • The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) remained high for Oklahoma and Kansas from mid-April through mid-May. Unusually high evaporative demand (the “thirst of the atmosphere”) can lead to drying of the landscape, even when precipitation has been near normal.
  • It’s been a quiet Atlantic hurricane season so far, with only two named tropical storms: Arthur in June and Bertha in July. Both brought some rain to the Gulf Coast, where overall precipitation totals for summer are near average.
  • Soil moisture across most of northern Texas, Oklahoma, and western Kansas is below the 10th percentile.
  • Below-normal streamflows are generally present in areas that missed recent precipitation.
  • Groundwater levels in the Edwards Aquifer recently increased, but remain below average. Groundwater conditions in this aquifer have been below-average since 2022.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Mostly Missed Drought-Affected Areas in Central Texas (July 13–20, 2026)

Left: Severe to exceptional drought (D3–D4) is concentrated heavily across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southern Kansas. Central Texas remains mostly drought-free. Right: From July 13 to 20, heavy rainfall ranging from 4 to over 8 inches is concentrated in south-central Texas, while dry conditions with totals under 0.5 inches prevailed across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.
Left: July 21 U.S. Drought Monitor map, depicting the location and intensity of drought across the country using 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4). Sources: NDMC, NOAA, USDA, and NASA.  Right: Total precipitation (in inches) for the 7 days from July 13–July 20th, 2026. Dark blue shades indicate the highest precipitation amounts. Source: UC Merced, GridMET. Maps from Drought.gov.

Thirsty Atmosphere: High Evaporative Demand Compounds Dry Conditions in Northern Texas

High evaporative demand is present in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and in western Kansas. There are areas of lower evaporative demand in parts of western Texas.
 The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) for the four weeks ending July 27, 2026. EDDI is a drought monitoring tool that shows the anomaly in daily evaporative demand over a given period of time. Evaporative demand is the atmospheric influence on the drying of the landscape, or "the thirst of the atmosphere." Unusually high evaporative demand can lead to moisture stress on the land surface, and ultimately to drought—even when precipitation has been near-normal. EDDI can serve as an indicator of fire-weather risk. Source(s): NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from the Drought Data Dashboard.

Soil Moisture Conditions Improved Across the Southern Plains, But Deficits Remain

Map of the South Central U.S. showing soil moisture percentiles for the top 1 meter of soil as of July 27, 2026, where red and orange hues indicate drier soils and blues indicate wetter conditions. Very dry soil conditions below the 10th percentile are prominent in Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and eastern Texas, while wet conditions above the 80th percentile are concentrated in western central Texas.
The moisture content of the top 1 meter of soil as on July 27, 2026, compared to historical conditions from 1981–2013, based on NASA's Short-term Prediction and Transition Center – Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS). Red and orange hues indicate drier soils, while greens and blues indicate greater soil moisture. Source(s): NASA. Map from Drought.gov.

Low Streamflow in Western Oklahoma and Kansas

Below, much below, and below-normal streamflows are concentrated across western Kansas and Oklahoma. Green dots indicating normal streamflow conditions dominate the eastern portion of the map, particularly across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma and parts of eastern Texas.
1-day average streamflow conditions (dots) for July 27, 2026, compared to historical conditions for the same day of the year. Both 1-day and historical streamflow values are calculated as mean discharge (cubic feet per second) over a 24-hour period. Only streamgages with 30 or more years of data are included in this map. Streamflow data is overlaid on the July 21 U.S. Drought Monitor (shading). These streamflow data are provisional and subject to revision. Sources: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Drought Monitor. Map from Drought.gov

Outlooks and Potential Impacts in the Southern Plains

  • The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 and  8-14 day outlooks slightly favor below-normal or near-normal precipitation, with odds favoring above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains. 
  • The August to October outlooks show below-normal precipitation is most likely (33-40% chance) for coastal and eastern Texas, with odds favoring above-normal precipitation along the western edge of the region. Above-average temperatures are likely (more than 40% chance) for most of Texas with lower probabilities for Oklahoma and Kansas. 
  • El Niño is currently active
  • El Niño conditions are usually associated with a cool, wet late-fall to winter for Texas. Historically, there is not a dominant summertime weather pattern during developing El Niños. 

August is Likely to Be Warmer than Normal

Monthly Precipitation Outlook for August, 2026. Most of the region, including Texas, Oklahoma, and most of Kansas, has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation. Northern Kansas shows a slightly elevated 33%–40% probability of above-normal precipitation.
August monthly precipitation outlook showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (brown), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (blue/green) precipitation across the south-central U.S. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Additional Resources

Recent Reports

Additional Resources by State

More local information is available from the following resources:

More state and regional information is available from the following resources:

To report or view local drought impact information:

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences/University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System 

John Nielsen-Gammon and B.J. Baule
Office of the Texas State Climatologist, Southern Regional Climate Center, Texas A&M University

Matt Sittel
Kansas State Climate Office

Mack Morris
National Weather Service, Austin/San Antonio Weather Forecast Office

Special Thanks

This Drought Status Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System region based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve. NIDIS is an interagency program within the Climate Program Office, which is part of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.

Partner(s)
NOAA emblem

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

NOAA emblem

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)

NOAA emblem

Climate Program Office (CPO)

National Integrated Drought Information System logo.

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

NOAA NWS Logo

National Weather Service (NWS)

NOAA emblem

Climate Prediction Center

Southern Regional Climate Center logo

Southern Regional Climate Center

Office of the Texas State Climatologist logo

Office of the Texas State Climatologist

Texas A&M University logo

Texas A&M University

Oklahoma Mesonet logo

Oklahoma Mesonet

Oklahoma Climatological Survey logo

Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Kansas State University.

Kansas State University

Kansas State Research and Extension logo

Kansas Office of the State Climatologist

Related Content
Related States