Outlooks & Forecasts
1–5 Day
During May 1–5, 2025, heavy rain (2 to locally 5 inches) is forecast for central and northeastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. Moderate to locally heavy totals (1 to 2.5 inches) are expected over much of Mississippi and Alabama, the central and southern Appalachians, the middle and upper Ohio Valley, Pennsylvania and adjacent New York and New Jersey, and a small portion of the central Great Lakes. Light to moderate totals are expected across the remainder of the eastern U.S., and several tenths to an inch are forecast from the central and southern Plains westward through much of the Rockies, Nevada, and most of California, with locally higher amounts in some higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Little or no precipitation is forecast across the northern tier from the upper Mississippi Valley westward to the Pacific Coast and in parts of the Southwest. Warmer-than-normal weather is expected from the western Great Lakes through the northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Meanwhile, cooler-than-normal conditions are anticipated from central and southern California through the Great Basin, southern Rockies, and central and western Texas.
6–10 Day
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook (valid May 6–10, 2025) favors below-normal precipitation across the Great Lakes, middle and upper Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, interior Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, lower Northeast, and western New England. In contrast, enhanced chances for wetter-than-normal conditions cover Florida and the immediate southern Atlantic Coast, Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley, central and southern Plains and Rockies, most of the Great Basin, Southwest, southeastern portions of Alaska, and Hawaii.
Higher-than-normal temperatures are favored across roughly the northern two-thirds of the Lower 48. Enhanced chances for warmer-than-normal weather also extend across Hawaii, especially central and western parts of the island chain. Increased odds for below-normal temperatures cover Florida, central and western Texas, the central and southern Four Corners region, and southeastern Alaska. Chances for significantly cooler-than-normal conditions exceed 50% across central and southern New Mexico.
This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for April 29, 2025, written by Richard Tinker (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) and Lindsay Johnson (National Drought Mitigation Center).
Official NOAA Drought Outlooks
Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Persists
During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought conditions will persist.
Drought Improves
During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that existing drought conditions will improve (but not be removed).
Drought Is Removed
During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought will be removed.
Drought Develops
During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought will develop.
No Drought Present
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is no drought, and is drought development is not predicted.
Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Persists
During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought conditions will persist.
Drought Improves
During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that existing drought conditions will improve (but not be removed).
Drought Is Removed
During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought will be removed.
Drought Develops
During this time period, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that drought will develop.
No Drought Present
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is no drought, and is drought development is not predicted.
2-4 Week Hazard Outlook
Risk of Rapid Onset Drought
National Weather Service forecasters predict that rapid drought development (also known as "flash drought") may occur in the coming 2–4 weeks.
The Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will develop, remain, improve, or be removed in the next calendar month.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will develop, remain, improve, or be removed in the next 3 months or so.
This National Weather Service hazard outlook map shows the risk of rapid onset drought (flash drought) development during the next 2–4 weeks.
Forecasters use initial conditions, like existing dryness (e.g., soil moisture), temperature, and precipitation outlooks, to assess the risk of rapid drought development. Rapid onset drought risk areas (yellow) can give users, such as farmers making decisions about planting and supplemental irrigation, an early warning of the potential for hot and dry conditions.
The Climate Prediction Center issues its Monthly Drought Outlooks on the last day of the calendar month.
The Climate Prediction Center issues its Seasonal Drought Outlooks on the third Thursday of each calendar month. Sometimes, the map is adjusted on the last day of the month to maintain consistency with the Monthly Drought Outlook.
National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters issue rapid onset drought (ROD) risk areas on Thursdays, with the potential for updates on the following Mondays, from April 1–October 31.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center hazards outlook is issued between 2–5 p.m. ET, and this Drought.gov map updates at 7 p.m. ET.
Snow drought is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.
Learn MorePeriods of drought can lead to inadequate water supply, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreDuring drought conditions, fuels for wildfire, such as grasses and trees, can dry out and become more flammable. Drought can also increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires.
Learn MoreSnow drought is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.
Learn MorePeriods of drought can lead to inadequate water supply, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreDuring drought conditions, fuels for wildfire, such as grasses and trees, can dry out and become more flammable. Drought can also increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires.
Learn MoreAir temperature can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreExtreme weather events can interact or cascade—where one disaster event triggers or changes the probability of another event. For example, drought conditions can increase the probability of large-scale wildfires, and droughts are often accompanied by extreme heat. By including drought in multi-hazard planning, a community can consolidate its resources and develop coordinated responses before a disaster.
Learn MoreOfficial NOAA Precipitation Forecast
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
Less than 0.01 inch
0.01 to 0.1 inch
0.1 to 0.25 inch
0.25 to 0.5 inch
0.5 to 0.75 inch
0.75 to 1 inch
1 to 1.25 inches
1.25 to 1.5 inches
1.5 to 1.75 inches
1.75 to 2 inches
1.5 to 2 inches
2 to 2.5 inches
2.5 to 3 inches
3 to 4 inches
4 to 5 inches
5 to 7 inches
7 to 10 inches
10 to 15 inches
15 to 20 inches
More than 20 inches
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
Less than 0.01 inch
0.01 to 0.1 inch
0.1 to 0.25 inch
0.25 to 0.5 inch
0.5 to 0.75 inch
0.75 to 1 inch
1 to 1.25 inches
1.25 to 1.5 inches
1.5 to 1.75 inches
1.75 to 2 inches
1.5 to 2 inches
2 to 2.5 inches
2.5 to 3 inches
3 to 4 inches
4 to 5 inches
5 to 7 inches
7 to 10 inches
10 to 15 inches
15 to 20 inches
More than 20 inches
This map shows the amount of liquid precipitation (in inches) expected to fall over the next 1 day, according to the National Weather Service.
This map shows the amount of liquid precipitation (in inches) expected to fall over the next 7 days, according to the National Weather Service.
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast maps on Drought.gov are updated once a day and are valid from 7 a.m. Eastern that day.
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast maps on Drought.gov are updated once a day and are valid from 7 a.m. Eastern that day.
Drought is defined as the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreDrought is defined as the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreOfficial NOAA Precipitation Outlooks
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
>90% Chance of Below Normal
There is a >90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
>90% Chance of Above Normal
There is a >90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
Near-Normal
Odds favor near-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
>90% Chance of Below Normal
There is a >90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
>90% Chance of Above Normal
There is a >90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
Near-Normal
Odds favor near-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
>90% Chance of Below Normal
There is a >90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
>90% Chance of Above Normal
There is a >90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% of Near Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of near-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% of Near Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of near-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
>90% Chance of Below Normal
There is a >90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
>90% Chance of Above Normal
There is a >90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
33%–40% of Near Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of near-normal precipitation during this period.
40%–50% of Near Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of near-normal precipitation during this period.
This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal precipitation 6 to 10 days in the future.
This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal precipitation 8 to 14 days in the future.
This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (green hues) or below-normal (brown hues) precipitation over the next calendar month. White areas indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.
This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (green hues) or below-normal (brown hues) precipitation over the next three months. White areas indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation.
The Climate Prediction Center updates their 6–10 day precipitation outlook daily.
The Climate Prediction Center updates their 8–14 day outlooks daily.
The Climate Prediction Center updates their monthly precipitation outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month and again on the last day of each calendar month.
The Climate Prediction Center updates their seasonal precipitation outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month.
Drought is defined as the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MorePeriods of drought can lead to inadequate water supply, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreDrought is defined as the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MorePeriods of drought can lead to inadequate water supply, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreDrought is defined as the lack of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually for a season or more, that results in a water shortage. Changes in precipitation can substantially disrupt crops and livestock, influence the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and affect the quality and quantity of water available for municipal and industrial use.
Learn MoreSnow drought is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.
Learn MorePeriods of drought can lead to inadequate water supply, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreSnow drought is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.
Learn MorePeriods of drought can lead to inadequate water supply, threatening the health, safety, and welfare of communities. Streamflow, groundwater, reservoir, and snowpack data are key to monitoring and forecasting water supply.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreDuring drought conditions, fuels for wildfire, such as grasses and trees, can dry out and become more flammable. Drought can also increase the probability of ignition and the rate at which fire spreads. Temperature, soil moisture, humidity, wind speed, and fuel availability (vegetation) are all factors that interact to influence the frequency of large wildfires.
Learn MoreOfficial NOAA Temperature Outlooks
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
>90% Chance of Below Normal
There is a >90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
>90% Chance of Above Normal
There is a >90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
Near-Normal
Odds favor near-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
>90% Chance of Below Normal
There is a >90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
>90% Chance of Above Normal
There is a >90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
Near-Normal
Odds favor near-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
>90% Chance of Below Normal
There is a >90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
>90% Chance of Above Normal
There is a >90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% of Near Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of near-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% of Near Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of near-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Below Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
>90% Chance of Below Normal
There is a >90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
50%–60% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
60%–70% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
70%–80% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
80%–90% Chance of Above Normal
There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
>90% Chance of Above Normal
There is a >90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period.
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
33%–40% of Near Normal
There is an 33%–40% chance of near-normal temperatures during this period.
40%–50% of Near Normal
There is an 40%–50% chance of near-normal temperatures during this period.
This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperatures 6 to 10 days in the future.
This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperature 8 to 14 days in the future.
This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (red hues) or below-normal (blue hues) temperatures over the next calendar month. White areas indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures.
This map shows the probability (percent chance) of above-normal (red hues) or below-normal (blue hues) temperatures over the next three months. White areas indicates equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures.
The Climate Prediction Center updates their 6–10 day outlooks daily.
The Climate Prediction Center updates their 8–14 day outlooks daily.
The Climate Prediction Center updates their monthly temperature outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month and again on the last day of each calendar month.
The Climate Prediction Center updates their seasonal temperature outlook on the third Thursday of each calendar month.
Air temperature can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MoreAir temperature can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.
Learn MoreFlash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought. Unlike slow-evolving drought, which is caused by a decline in precipitation, flash drought occurs when low precipitation is accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, high winds, and/or changes in radiation. These sometimes-rapid changes can quickly raise evapotranspiration rates and remove available water from the landscape.
Learn MoreAir temperature can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.
Learn MoreSnow drought is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn MoreAir temperature can have wide-ranging effects on natural processes. Warmer air temperatures increase evapotranspiration—which is the combination of evaporation from the soil and bodies of water and transpiration from plants—and lower soil moisture.
Learn MoreSnow drought is a period of abnormally low snowpack for the time of year. Snowpack typically acts as a natural reservoir, providing water throughout the drier summer months. Lack of snowpack storage, or a shift in timing of snowmelt, can be a challenge for drought planning.
Learn MoreDrought can reduce the water availability and water quality necessary for productive farms, ranches, and grazing lands, resulting in significant negative direct and indirect economic impacts to the agricultural sector. Monitoring agricultural drought typically focuses on examining levels of precipitation, evaporative demand, soil moisture, and surface/groundwater quantity and quality.
Learn More
The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
The Climate Explorer offers graphs and maps of observed and projected temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables for every county in the contiguous United States, helping people asse
Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).
Challenges with Predicting Drought
Pressure Systems
High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).
Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability
In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).
Interconnected Variables
Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).
ENSO and Global Weather Patterns
Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).