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Weekly Look Ahead

March 14, 2024 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

According to forecasts from the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, heavy snowfall is forecast in the Colorado Front Range area from March 14–15, while heavy precipitation with this storm system is also likely across other parts of the Four Corners states. Aside from portions of the Four Corners states, much of the West is likely to stay dry through Monday evening. 

Farther east, through Monday evening, half an inch (or more) of precipitation is forecast from central Nebraska eastward into parts of the Rust Belt. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, are also forecast from central Texas eastward through southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and southeast Missouri to most of Georgia and Tennessee and southern Kentucky.

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day forecast (valid March 19–23) favors near-normal or above-normal precipitation across the contiguous U.S. The highest confidence areas for above-normal precipitation are the Florida Peninsula, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Arizona/New Mexico border northward through Montana. In Hawaii, below-normal precipitation is likely on all islands except for the Big Island, where near-normal precipitation is favored. Wetter-than-normal weather is favored for central, northern, and western Alaska, while drier-than-normal weather is favored in southeast Alaska.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the West, especially in Utah, Nevada, California, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon, in parts of the central and southern Great Plains, and in Alaska, especially in the western reaches of the state. Below-normal temperatures are favored in the Southeast (excluding the southern Florida Peninsula), Hawaii, and from central Montana eastward through North Dakota and northern South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Below-normal temperatures are slightly favored in the Ohio River Valley and Rust Belt.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for March 12, 2024, written by Curtis Riganti and Denise Gutzmer (National Drought Mitigation Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
Range Map Hex Color
0 - 0.01 #ffffff
0.01 - 0.1 #7fff00
0.1 - 0.25 #00cd00
0.25 - 0.5 #008b00
0.5 - 0.75 #104e8b
0.75 - 1 #1e90ff
1 - 1.25 #00b2ee
1.25 - 1.5 #00eeee
1.5 - 1.75 #8968cd
Range Map Hex Color
1.75 - 2 #912cee
2 - 2.5 #8b008b
2.5 - 3 #8b0000
3 - 4 #cd0000
4 - 5 #ee4000
5 - 7 #ff7f00
7 - 10 #cd8500
10 - 15 #ffd700
15 - 20 #ffff00
20 - #ffaeb9
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
Range Map Hex Color
0 - 0.01 #ffffff
0.01 - 0.1 #7fff00
0.1 - 0.25 #00cd00
0.25 - 0.5 #008b00
0.5 - 0.75 #104e8b
0.75 - 1 #1e90ff
1 - 1.25 #00b2ee
1.25 - 1.5 #00eeee
1.5 - 1.75 #8968cd
Range Map Hex Color
1.75 - 2 #912cee
2 - 2.5 #8b008b
2.5 - 3 #8b0000
3 - 4 #cd0000
4 - 5 #ee4000
5 - 7 #ff7f00
7 - 10 #cd8500
10 - 15 #ffd700
15 - 20 #ffff00
20 - #ffaeb9

6–10 Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
Range Map Hex Color Description
33% - 40% #f0d493 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
40% - 50% #d8a750 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
50% - 60% #bb6d33 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
60% - 70% #9b5031 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
70% - 80% #934639 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
80% - 90% #804000 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
90% - 100% #4f2f2f >90% Chance of Below Normal There is a >90% chance of below-normal precipitation during this period. 
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
Range Map Hex Color Description
33% - 40% #b3d9ab 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
40% - 50% #94cd7e 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
50% - 60% #48ae38 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
60% - 70% #3a7b5f 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
70% - 80% #008e40 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
80% - 90% #28553d 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
90% - 100% #285517 >90% Chance of Above Normal There is a >90% chance of above-normal precipitation during this period. 
Value Map Hex Color Description
Near-Normal Conditions #a2a2a2 Near-Normal Odds favor near-normal precipitation during this period.
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
Range Map Hex Color Description
33% - 40% #a0c0df 33%–40% Chance of Below Normal There is an 33%–40% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
40% - 50% #77b5e2 40%–50% Chance of Below Normal There is an 40%–50% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
50% - 60% #389fdb 50%–60% Chance of Below Normal There is an 50%–60% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
60% - 70% #005ca1 60%–70% Chance of Below Normal There is an 60%–70% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
70% - 80% #2f406f 70%–80% Chance of Below Normal There is an 70%–80% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
80% - 90% #221852 80%–90% Chance of Below Normal There is an 80%–90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
90% - 100% #1c1342 >90% Chance of Below Normal There is a >90% chance of below-normal temperatures during this period. 
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
Range Map Hex Color Description
33% - 40% #e7b168 33%–40% Chance of Above Normal There is an 33%–40% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
40% - 50% #e38b4a 40%–50% Chance of Above Normal There is an 40%–50% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
50% - 60% #dc562f 50%–60% Chance of Above Normal There is an 50%–60% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
60% - 70% #c72e28 60%–70% Chance of Above Normal There is an 60%–70% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
70% - 80% #cc3047 70%–80% Chance of Above Normal There is an 70%–80% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
80% - 90% #8a2f38 80%–90% Chance of Above Normal There is an 80%–90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
90% - 100% #622228 >90% Chance of Above Normal There is a >90% chance of above-normal temperatures during this period. 
Value Map Hex Color Description
Near-Normal Conditions #a2a2a2 Near-Normal Odds favor near-normal temperatures during this period.

U.S. Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Value Map Hex Color Description
Persist #9b634a Drought Persists During this time period, drought is forecast to persist.
Improve #ded2bc Drought Improves During this time period, drought is forecast to improve.
End #b2ad69 Drought Is Removed During this time period, drought removal is forecast.
Develop #ffde63 Drought Develops During this time period, drought development is forecast.
N/A #ffffff No Drought Present
Drought Is Predicted To...
Value Map Hex Color Description
Persist #9b634a Drought Persists During this time period, drought is forecast to persist.
Improve #ded2bc Drought Improves During this time period, drought is forecast to improve.
End #b2ad69 Drought Is Removed During this time period, drought removal is forecast.
Develop #ffde63 Drought Develops During this time period, drought development is forecast.
N/A #ffffff No Drought Present

Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Forecast

Drought Conditions
Value Map Hex Color Description
ED4 #730000 Exceptional Drought (98th–100th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 98% to 100% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
ED3 #E60000 Extreme Drought (95th–98th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 95% to 98% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
ED2 #FFAA00 Severe Drought (90th–95th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 90% to 95% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
ED1 #FCD37F Moderate Drought (80th–90th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 80% to 90% of previous values. Learn more about these categories.
ED0 #FFFF00 Abnormally Dry (70th–80th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 70% to 80% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
Wet Conditions
Value Map Hex Color Description
EW0 #AAFF55 Abnormally Wet (20th–30th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 20% to 30% of historical values (i.e., only 20%–30% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
EW1 #01FFFF Moderate Wet (10th–20th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 10% to 20% of historical values (i.e., only 10%–20% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
EW2 #00AAFF Severe Wet (5th–10th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 5% to 10% of historical values (i.e., only 5%–10% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
EW3 #0000FF Extreme Wet (2nd–5th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 2% to 5% of historical values (i.e., only 2%–5% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
EW4 #0000AA Exceptional Wet (0–2nd Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 0% to 2% of historical values (i.e., less than 2% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
Drought Conditions
Value Map Hex Color Description
ED4 #730000 Exceptional Drought (98th–100th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 98% to 100% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
ED3 #E60000 Extreme Drought (95th–98th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 95% to 98% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
ED2 #FFAA00 Severe Drought (90th–95th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 90% to 95% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
ED1 #FCD37F Moderate Drought (80th–90th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 80% to 90% of previous values. Learn more about these categories.
ED0 #FFFF00 Abnormally Dry (70th–80th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, evaporative demand is forecast to be greater than 70% to 80% of historical values. Learn more about these categories.
Wet Conditions
Value Map Hex Color Description
EW0 #AAFF55 Abnormally Wet (20th–30th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 20% to 30% of historical values (i.e., only 20%–30% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
EW1 #01FFFF Moderate Wet (10th–20th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 10% to 20% of historical values (i.e., only 10%–20% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
EW2 #00AAFF Severe Wet (5th–10th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 5% to 10% of historical values (i.e., only 5%–10% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
EW3 #0000FF Extreme Wet (2nd–5th Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 2% to 5% of historical values (i.e., only 2%–5% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.
EW4 #0000AA Exceptional Wet (0–2nd Percentile) Compared to "normal" conditions, current evaporative demand is forecast to be in the bottom 0% to 2% of historical values (i.e., less than 2% of previous values had lower evaporative demand). Learn more about these categories.

Experimental
Experimental

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).