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Weekly Look Ahead

July 31, 2025 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–7 Day

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center's 7-day forecast calls for generally dry conditions across much of the Western U.S. except for some light shower activity (accumulations generally <1 inch) across areas of the Rockies (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado) and mountain ranges of New Mexico. East of the Rockies, light-to-moderate accumulations (ranging from 1 to 4 inches) are expected across areas of the Plains states, with the heaviest accumulations expected in western Oklahoma. In the lower Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, South (Gulf Coast areas), and portions of the Southeast, 1 to 5+ inch accumulations are forecast, with the heaviest accumulation expected along the coastal plains of the Carolinas and Georgia. 

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlooks call for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest, southeastern portions of the Intermountain West, Plains, Midwest, New England, South, and southern portions of the Southeast region. In contrast, below-normal temperatures are forecast for areas of the West, including southern California, the Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest. In terms of precipitation, there is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, northern portions of the Intermountain West, northern Plains Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. Elsewhere, below-normal precipitation is expected across the southern half of the western U.S., southern Plains, and Texas.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for July 29, 2025, written by David Simeral (NOAA's Western Regional Climate Center) and Rocky Bilotta (NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...
2-4 Week Hazard Outlook

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Official NOAA Heat Hazard Outlooks

Hazard Outlook for Days 3–7
Hazard Outlook for Days 8–14

Official NOAA Fire Weather Outlook

Forecast Risk of Fire Weather

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).