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Outlooks & Forecasts

poster advertising the competiotionAnd they’re off: Solvers compete for up to $800,000 in prizes in the Subseasonal Forecast Rodeo!

The Bureau of Reclamation is sponsoring this year-long, real-time forecasting competition, focused on western U.S. temperature and precipitation, in partnership with NOAA, USGS, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Forecasts are issued every other week and evaluated as observed data become available. To be eligible for cash prizes, teams must outperform benchmark existing forecasts. Winners are anticipated to be announced in September of 2018.

Follow the teams, see the latest scores

When will drought affect me? How long could it last? Choose a forecast product below to get information, forecasts, and outlooks on what could be ahead.

Read an explanation of the causes and variables going into the prediction of drought, from the National Drought Mitigation Center.

 

US Seasonal Drought Outlook
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The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better in the next three months.
US Monthly Drought Outlook
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The Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
Seasonal Climate Forecasts
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Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
Drought Termination and Amelioration
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Users can generate maps to show probability of precipitation and the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought. (Sample image)
Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
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Temperature and precipitation forecasts for one to six months ahead.
GFS Soil Moisture Anomaly
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Predictions for the upcoming week or two weeks.
Streamflow Forecast Maps
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Available in spring and summer for the western U.S., forecasts of percent of monthly average flow compared to data from 1981-2010. Click here to find actual conditions.
State Water Supply Outlook Reports
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Data from the USDA for streamflow forecasts, reservoir storage and other hydrologic information for the Western states.
3-8 Day Fire Weather Outlook
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Updates daily. For an interactive map with options to show layers depicting watches and warnings, weather outlooks, spot forecasts, click here
National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
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Seasonal fire potential. Click for the current month or the next month.
El Niño Information
NOAA’s El Niño Portal: Current status of El Niño and explanatory links. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion and Weekly ENSO: Detailed explanation of El Ninõ’s current status and progression. ENSO and Drought Forecasting: A primer on El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), from the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Regional Quarterly Impacts and Outlook Reports
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NOAA and its partners publish regional statements each quarter, summarizing weather highlights, anomalies and impacts for the past season and predictions for the upcoming season. You can find the most recent Outlooks here, or use the Document Search, filtering for "Outlooks" and the region of interest.