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Weekly Look Ahead

July 10, 2025 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–5 Day

From July 10 to 14, a cold front is forecast to shift southeast across the Central U.S. and provide the focus for thunderstorms. The most widespread, heavy precipitation (more than 1.5 inches) is forecast across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Corn Belt, but locally heavy precipitation is expected as far south and west as the southern Great Plains and eastern New Mexico. Locally heavy precipitation is forecast across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, especially east of the Appalachians. 

A lull in the North American Monsoon will be accompanied by above-normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest. Dry weather and increasing heat are likely for the interior Pacific Northwest.

6–10 Day

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook (valid July 15–19, 2025) favors above-normal precipitation across the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S., most of Alaska, and the western Hawaiian Islands. The largest above-normal precipitation probabilities (more than 50% chance) are forecast for the Florida Panhandle, western Texas, and eastern New Mexico. Odds favor below-normal precipitation in parts of the Pacific Northwest. 

Above-normal temperatures are favored throughout the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, eastern Texas, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the East. Increased chances for below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Great Plains. The outlook leans cooler than normal for southern Alaska and warmer than normal for northern Alaska.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for July 8, 2025, written by Brad Pugh (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) and Daniel Whitesel (National Drought Mitigation Center).

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...
2-4 Week Hazard Outlook

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Official NOAA Heat Hazard Outlooks

Hazard Outlook for Days 3–7
Hazard Outlook for Days 8–14

Official NOAA Fire Weather Outlook

Forecast Risk of Fire Weather

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).