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Weekly Look Ahead

September 4, 2025 (Updated Every Thursday)

1–7 Day

The drier pattern is likely to persist across much of the Eastern and Central U.S. through September 15. Along with the continued dryness dating back to August, a transition to warmer-than-normal temperatures is underway throughout the Central U.S. and summer-like heat is forecast to expand east across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. From September 13 to 15, maximum temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to near 100 °F from St Louis south to Memphis. Another week of heavy rainfall is forecast to affect the southern third of the Florida Peninsula and portions of New Mexico. Showers and thundershowers will shift eastward from Oregon and the Northern Intermountain West to the Northern Great Plains.

6–10 Day

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid September 16–20, 2025) favors above-normal temperatures for the nearly the entire Lower 48 states, southeastern Alaska, and Hawaii. The largest above-normal temperature probabilities (70%–80%) are forecast across the Mississippi Valley. The outlook leans towards the drier side across most of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Lower Mississippi Valley. Above-normal precipitation is more likely for the Upper Mississippi Valley, Northern to Central Great Plains, Rockies, and Southwest. The outlook also favors above-normal precipitation for most of Alaska and Hawaii.

 

This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for September 9, 2025, written by Brad Pugh (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) and Maureen Sartini (U.S. Department of Agriculture).
 

Featured Outlooks & Forecasts

Predicting drought depends on the ability to forecast precipitation and temperature within the context of complex climate interactions. Many different datasets and maps are available that predict how precipitation and temperature may change in the future.

Official NOAA Drought Outlooks

Drought Is Predicted To...
Drought Is Predicted To...
2-4 Week Hazard Outlook

Official NOAA Precipitation Forecast

Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75
Predicted Inches of Precipitation
1.75

Official NOAA Precipitation Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Precipitation
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Precipitation
50%

Official NOAA Temperature Outlooks

Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%
Probability of Below-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Above-Normal Temperatures
100%
Probability of Near-Normal Temperatures
50%

Official NOAA Heat Hazard Outlooks

Hazard Outlook for Days 3–7
Hazard Outlook for Days 8–14

Official NOAA Fire Weather Outlook

Forecast Risk of Fire Weather

Challenges with Predicting Drought

Pressure Systems

High pressure systems, which hinder cloud formation and lead to low relative humidity and precipitation, can cause drought. When large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns last for months or seasons, prolonged drought occurs (NDMC).

Temperate Zone Forecast Reliability

In temperate regions (above 30 north latitude), long-range forecasts have limited reliability. Due to differences in observed conditions and statistical models, reliable forecasts for temperate regions may not be attainable for a season or more in advance (NDMC).

Interconnected Variables

Anomalies in precipitation and temperature may last from several months to several decades, and how long they last can depend on air–sea interactions, soil moisture, land surface processes, topography, and weather systems at the global scale (NDMC).

ENSO and Global Weather Patterns

Teleconnections, such as ENSO and La Niña events, are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes (NDMC).