Outlooks & Forecasts
5–7 Day Outlook
The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center's 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast calls for moderate-to-heavy rainfall accumulations ranging from 2 to 5+ inches along the Gulf Coast of Texas, Louisiana, Florida Panhandle, and areas of southern Georgia. Across the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, light rainfall accumulations (generally less than 1 inch) are expected, except for coastal areas of Massachusetts and Maine where accumulations of approximately 2 inches are predicted. In the Midwest, light precipitation accumulations are forecasted across the eastern half of the region, while areas in the western extent will be drier over the coming week. From the Plains to the West Coast, mainly dry conditions will prevail, with the exception of areas of isolated, light precipitation possible across the Central and Southern Rockies and the northern Great Basin. Slightly greater accumulations (generally around 1 inch) are expected in the Northern Rockies.
6–10 Day Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center's 6–10 day outlooks show a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across the northern half of the lower 48 states, as well as along the Eastern Seaboard extending into New England. Across much of the Pacific Northwest, North Dakota, and the Upper Midwest, normal temperatures are expected.
There is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal precipitation across New England, the Midwest, the South, and the eastern half of Texas. Below-normal precipitation is expected across most of the western U.S.
This weekly look ahead is modified from the U.S. Drought Monitor's National Drought Summary for September 7, 2021, written by David Simeral (Western Regional Climate Center) and Richard Tinker (NOAA's Climate Prediction Center).
Drought Outlooks & Forecasts
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Drought Outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better over the next 30 days or so. Learn more.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook is issued monthly on the third Thursday of each month. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next three months. Learn more.
Taking the U.S. Drought Monitor as a starting point, the Climate Prediction Center's Objective Drought Tendency Forecast is an integrated product that combines information from the flash drought development tool and subseasonal SPI3 forecasts. The forecast synthesizes information through a decision-tree process to determine whether drought will emerge, stay the same, or get better in the next 30 days, on a rolling basis. This tool is used to inform the official forecasts. Learn more.
Drought Outlook
Drought Outlook
Drought Outlook
Evaporative Demand and Flash Drought
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental drought monitoring and early warning guidance tool. It examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand (E0; also known as "the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a time period of interest. This experimental subseasonal EDDI forecast shows projected evaporative demand for the next 28 days from the CFS-gridMET dataset at 4-km gridded resolution. Learn more.
Created by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this subseasonal tool predicts the areas susceptible for flash drought development. The real-time product started running in April 2018 and has been used to support CPC’s Monthly Drought Outlook efforts. The tool, which is used to inform official forecasts, calculates the rapid change index (RCI) using 7-day mean evapotranspiration anomalies. RCI is the accumulated magnitude of moisture stress changes occurring over multiple weeks, and drought is likely to develop when RCI is negative. In the legend below, a higher number of non-exceedances indicates a greater potential for flash drought development. Learn more.
Drought Categories
Wetness Categories
Number of Non-Exceedances (Range: 0-30)
The U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so.
The Climate Explorer offers graphs and maps of observed and projected temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables for every county in the contiguous United States, helping people asse
Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.
NCEI provides precipitation data that can be used to show probability or the amount of precipitation to ameliorate or end a drought at different monthly scales.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly, and seasonal outlooks.
The National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces monthly and seasonal drought outlooks based on Soil Moisture (CAS).