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Regional Drought Update Date
May 19, 2026
Site Section
Drought Status Update

Drought Status Update for the Southern Plains

DEWS Regions:
Southern Plains
States:
Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
Update Status:

NIDIS and partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve.

May Storms Bring Relief, but Not Removal, of Southern Plains Drought

Key Points

  • Western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas face significant drought challenges across multiple regions, affecting cropland, rangelands and water supplies, and increasing wildfire risk.
  • This year’s winter wheat yield came up very short, creating a billion-dollar deficit in production.
  • Recent rain in the eastern stretches of the region improved conditions, but did not eliminate long-term drought.
  • A significant multi-day storm system already in progress should provide widespread rainfall to the eastern half of the Southern Plains states.
    • This precipitation will provide relief to drought-affected areas in eastern and southern  Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana.
    • The High Plains, in the west, will also get some rain from this storm, but will remain relatively dry. Drought is expected to persist.
  • Long-range forecasts suggest that temperatures are likely to continue to average above normal over the next three months (May–July). There are near equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation during this time. 
  • Long-term drought conditions in eastern Texas are expected to improve, but remain. Long-term drought in western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas will likely persist through summer.
  • A strong El Niño event is expected to bring a wetter and cooler winter. Historically, the summer before an El Niño winter experiences less tropical storm activity observed over the Gulf. 

This update is based on data available as of Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. CT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Conditions
Current Drought and Forecast Precipitation for the Southern Plains
U.S. Drought Monitor

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories
14.76
24.06
26.72
15.58
1.15
67.51

Data valid: 05/17/26
U.S. Drought Monitor map details and information: Learn More
Main Stats
67.5%
of the Southern Plains is experiencing some level of drought
15.5 Million
Southern Plains residents in areas of drought (estimated), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor
70%
winter wheat abandonment rate in Texas

Current Conditions and Impacts for the Southern Plains

  • A primarily agricultural drought has been impacting the region. For Oklahoma and northern Texas, this drought began in August 2025 and intensified over the winter and early spring. This drought has negatively impacted rangeland conditions and crop production.
    • Winter wheat abandonment by Southern Plains state: 70% in Texas, 47% in Oklahoma, and 17% in Kansas.
    • Of the acres harvested, yield in the Southern Plains states are down compared to last year by 24% in Texas, 26% in Oklahoma, and 27% in Kansas.
    • The difference between expected production and actual production created a >$1 billion shortfall.
  • Exceptional Drought (D4) appeared in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle for the first time since July 2023. 
  • Edwards Aquifer levels remain significantly below average and have been since 2022.
  • On average, May and June are the wettest months of the year in the Southern Plains. 
  • Following a very dry March, April monthly precipitation returned to near normal for all three Southern Plains states, but most rain was in the eastern part of the region, allowing drought conditions to deteriorate in the west. 
  • Statewide average temperatures were high through April.
    • Kansas: 3rd warmest April on record, 6.1 ºF above average
    • Oklahoma: 5th warmest April on record, 5.7 ºF above average
    • Texas: 7th warmest April on record, 5.0 ºF above average
  • Soil moisture across most of northern Texas, Oklahoma, and western Kansas is below the 10th percentile.
  • The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) remained high for Oklahoma and Kansas from mid-April through mid-May. Unusually high evaporative demand (the “thirst of the atmosphere”) can lead to drying of the landscape, even when precipitation has been near normal.

Precipitation Deficits Continue for Western Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle

Two panels showing percent of normal precipitation for the Southern Plains over the past 30 and 60 days. In the 30-day map, a distinct, acute precipitation deficit (0% to 25% of normal) is centered over the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and eastern New Mexico. In the 60-day map, a severe precipitation deficit (0% to 50% of normal) spans across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Percent of average precipitation over the past 30 days, April 15–May 15, 2026 (left), and over the past 60 days, March 16–May 15, 2026 (right), compared to historical conditions from 1991–2020. Brown hues indicate below-normal precipitation, and blue/green hues indicate above-normal precipitation. Source: GridMET, UC Merced. Map from Drought.gov.

High Evaporative Demand Compounds Existing Dry Conditions for Oklahoma and Kansas

. High to extreme evaporative demand (ED2–ED4) intensely blankets much of Kansas and Oklahoma and the eastern parts of Texas. Conversely, light blue shades indicating moderately wet conditions are concentrated across southern and coastal Texas, while western Texas and New Mexico show normal to slightly dry conditions.
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) for the four weeks ending May 13, 2026. EDDI is a drought monitoring tool that shows the anomaly in daily evaporative demand over a given period of time. Evaporative demand is the atmospheric influence on the drying of the landscape, or "the thirst of the atmosphere." Unusually high evaporative demand can lead to moisture stress on the land surface, and ultimately to drought—even when precipitation has been near-normal. EDDI can serve as an indicator of fire-weather risk. Source(s): NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Soil Moisture Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas Improved in April and May, but Not Everywhere

Two maps showing soil moisture conditions for the Southern Plains on March 31 and May 17. On the March 31 map, much of central and southern Texas, western Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, are in the bottom 2nd to 5th percentiles (dark red), representing some of the driest historical measurements for this time of year. On the May 17 map, soil moisture conditions improved in parts of Texas. However, extreme to exceptional soil moisture deficits (0 to 5th percentile) are heavily clustered across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and Kansas.
The moisture content of the top 1 meter of soil as of March 31, 2026 (left) and May 17, 2026 (right), compared to historical conditions from 1981–2013, based on NASA's Short-term Prediction and Transition Center – Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS). Red and orange hues indicate drier soils, while greens and blues indicate greater soil moisture. Source: NASA. Map from Drought.gov.

Outlooks and Potential Impacts in the Southern Plains

  • A significant multi-day storm system this week (May 19-26) is bringing widespread rainfall to the eastern half of the Southern Plains states.
    • 4 to 10 inches are forecast for drought-affected areas in eastern and southern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana.
    • The High Plains, including western Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, will also get some rain from this storm, potentially over one inch in some locations. This will not be enough to make up for long-term precipitation deficits, and overall, drought in the High Plains is expected to persist. 
    • Far West Texas and New Mexico are expected to receive very little to no rainfall.
  • The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 and  8-14 day outlooks favor wetter-than-normal weather across the Southern Plains. 
  • The May to July outlooks show below-normal precipitation is most likely (33-40% chance) for western and central Kansas, with odds favoring above-normal precipitation for Far West Texas. Above-average temperatures are likely (more than 40% chance) for most of the Southern Plains. 
  • An El Niño Watch is in place.

May Storms Should Bring Short-Term Drought Improvement for Eastern Texas and Oklahoma

Heavy, widespread precipitation is forecasted for the eastern half of the region, with a massive core of 3 to 5 inches of rainfall (red and orange shades) centered over eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and eastern Oklahoma. 7 to 10 inches are forecast for an area of eastern Texas. Conversely, western Texas and New Mexico are expected to receive very little to no rainfall, remaining mostly under 0.25 inches (green and white areas).Western parts of Kansas and Oklahoma can expect 0.25 to 1.5 inches.
 Quantitative precipitation forecast showing amount of liquid precipitation (in inches) expected to fall over the 7 days from May 19-26, 2026, according to the National Weather Service. Source: National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Wet Weather in Late May Should Bring Continued Short-Term Drought Improvement

Map of the 8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook for May 26–June 1, 2026. Nearly the entire southern and central U.S. is shaded in teal, indicating a 40% to 60% probability of above-normal precipitation. The highest probabilities (50% to 60%) are in southern Texas. he takeaway is a widespread signal for wetter-than-normal conditions across the southern half of the country during this period.
 8–14 day precipitation outlook for May 26–June 1, 2026, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (brown), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (blue/green) precipitation across the South-Central U.S. Source: National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Additional Resources

Recent News and Reports

Additional Resources by State

More local information is available from the following resources:

More state and regional information is available from the following resources:

To report or view local drought impact information:

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences/University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System 

John Nielsen-Gammon and B.J. Baule
Office of the Texas State Climatologist, Southern Regional Climate Center, Texas A&M University

Matt Sittel
Kansas State Climate Office

Special Thanks

This Drought Status Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System region based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve. NIDIS is an interagency program within the Climate Program Office, which is part of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.

Partner(s)
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

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Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)

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Climate Program Office (CPO)

National Integrated Drought Information System logo.

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

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National Weather Service (NWS)

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Climate Prediction Center

Southern Regional Climate Center logo

Southern Regional Climate Center

Office of the Texas State Climatologist logo

Office of the Texas State Climatologist

Texas A&M University logo

Texas A&M University

Oklahoma Mesonet logo

Oklahoma Mesonet

Oklahoma Climatological Survey logo

Oklahoma Climatological Survey

Kansas State University.

Kansas State University

Kansas State Research and Extension logo

Kansas Office of the State Climatologist

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