Snow Drought Conditions Summary

This update is based on data available as of Monday, March 9, 2026 at 12:00 a.m. PT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving. 

Quantifying snow drought values is an ongoing research effort. Here, we define snow drought as snow water equivalent (SWE) at or below the 20th percentile, which is a baseline guided by partner expertise and research. Note that reporting of SWE by Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations may be unavailable or delayed due to technical, weather or other issues, which may affect snow drought depiction in this update. 

Current Conditions

The last three months (December, January, and February) were the warmest or tied the warmest winter on record dating back to 1895 for Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. Arizona and New Mexico broke their previous records set in 2015 and 1907, respectively, by over 2°F. California, Idaho, and Montana experienced their second warmest winter on record; Washington its 4th. 

Coming off of a record-dry January, near-normal precipitation fell over most, but not all, of the West in February and early March. Precipitation deficits are increasing in parts of Colorado, the Washington Cascades, New Mexico, Arizona, and the plains of Wyoming and Montana. 

This winter brought record flooding, rain-on-snow events, record-warm temperatures, and record dryness across the West. Because of these conditions, snow melted early in many places and failed to accumulate in middle and lower elevations. Snow fell and is currently present at higher elevations where temperatures were cold enough to produce snow, but high-elevation snow does not offset overall deficits from the absence of middle and low elevation snowpack. As a result, snowpack remains extremely low across the West. Some minor improvements occurred in some basins over the last month, but there was not enough snow to offset the substantial deficits.

Jump to conditions for your region:

• Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming (Rocky Mountains) Snow Conditions
• Arizona and New Mexico Snow Conditions
• Oregon and Washington Snow Conditions
• California and Nevada Snow Conditions
• Alaska Snow Conditions

If Precipitation Fell, It Fell as Rain for Many

Winter Concludes as the Record Warmest for Much of the West

Winter Ends With More Record-Low Snow

Northern Rocky Mountains

• 54% of stations in Montana are in snow drought
• 59% of stations in Idaho are in snow drought
• 42% of stations in Wyoming are in snow drought

Snow drought conditions continue to be widespread across the region. Lower to mid-elevation and plains snowpack is almost non-existent across Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. February precipitation was near-to-above normal, except over northern Montana, as well as central and eastern Wyoming, which saw substantial precipitation deficits. Record-breaking warm temperatures in February worsened snow drought as precipitation that fell did so as rain. Snow accumulated mostly at the highest elevations across the Northern Rocky Mountains.

Snow water equivalent (SWE) in Idaho is 58-87% of median, with many SNOTEL stations in southwestern Idaho reporting record low values. Record-low SWE is occurring at many SNOTEL stations across Wyoming’s Big Horn and Laramie Mountains. In western Montana, SWE is 78-95% of median, with several stations reporting record-low SWE values across the state.  

Central Rocky Mountains

• 74% of stations in Utah are in snow drought
• 97% of stations in Colorado are in snow drought

Despite snowfall in February, snow drought continued across the Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Utah. Colorado experienced its warmest February on record; and Utah its 3rd warmest on record. Though snow water equivalent (SWE) as a percent of median improved over the last month, seasonal deficits are so great that snow drought and record-low SWE persists in much of the region. For example, from February 10-20 several snow storms brought substantial, needed snow across the state of Colorado. However, the snow was not enough to alleviate deficits and statewide average SWE remained at a record low.

Both the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basin are reporting record low SWE. NRCS SWE projections for the Upper Colorado River Basin indicate that the most likely scenario peak SWE is around 10-30% of normal. These values could change depending on how conditions evolve. In Colorado, SWE in 1977 and 1981 was lower than in 2026, according to long-term snow course records with at least 50 years of data. However, this was due to less precipitation. Winter 2026 was much warmer than the winters of 1977 and 1981, while those years were much drier than this year. 

Colorado statewide average SWE is at its record low, 63% of median. Utah statewide average SWE is the second lowest on record at 65% of median. All basins in the Central Rocky Mountains are below 70% of median SWE, except small portions of the Green River Basin northeast Utah. 

Record-Low Snow Water Equivalent Since Mid-January in the Upper Colorado River Basin 

Arizona and New Mexico Snow Conditions

• 50% of stations in Arizona are in snow drought
• 80% of stations in New Mexico are in snow drought

Arizona and New Mexico remain in a snow drought, as conditions deteriorated over the past month. Arizona and New Mexico both experienced their warmest winter (December, January, February) on record. Storms brought modest snow water equivalent (SWE) increases in mid-February, but widespread snowmelt at SNOTEL stations began in late February and continued into early March. Most SNOTEL stations in Arizona report near-zero SWE. Satellite data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) show little-to-no snow cover except at the highest elevations in the state. Snow-covered area is also extremely low in New Mexico, with little snow present outside of New Mexico’s highest elevations, the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. 

Arizona’s statewide averaged SWE from SNOTEL stations is currently at 25% of the median peak (which occurred on March 4), a record low. In New Mexico, statewide averaged SWE from SNOTEL stations is currently at 44% of median. The upper Rio Grande Basin in New Mexico is reporting SWE 36% of median and the Salt River Basin in Arizona is reporting SWE 2% of median. 

Oregon and Washington Snow Conditions

• 87% of stations in Washington are in snow drought
• 91% of stations in Oregon are in snow drought

Snowpack remains much below normal across the region, though conditions are marginally better in Washington than Oregon. Stations in the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington have the greatest snowpack deficits in the West, more than 12 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE). Numerous February storms produced snow across Oregon, and monthly precipitation was near-to-above normal across the state.

February snow totals were insufficient to overcome the substantial SWE deficits across Oregon. Temperatures remained above normal for much of February, leading to freezing levels at higher-than-average elevations, as a result, most precipitation fell as rain rather than snow. February was drier in Washington than Oregon, especially in the central and northern Cascade Range, where monthly precipitation totals were about 50-70% of normal.

SWE across many Oregon basins is near historically low levels for this time of year. The Klamath Basin is at 23% of median SWE, the Willamette Basin 24%, the Southern Oregon Coastal and John Day basins 26%, the Deschutes Basin at 28%, and the Oregon Closed Basins 33%. Statewide SWE is 29% of median, ranking as the second lowest for this time of year, with only 2015 lower. Widespread record low SWE is reported in the Blue Mountains and at several stations in the Oregon Cascade Range. In Washington, most SNOTEL stations in the Cascade Range and the Olympic Mountains are reporting less than 50% of median SWE. A few high-elevation SNOTEL stations are reporting near normal SWE in Washington, but SWE below about 4,500 ft is less than 50% of median across the state. 

California and Nevada Snow Conditions

• 55% of stations in California are in snow drought
• 81% of stations in Nevada are in snow drought

Snow drought persists in northern Nevada and northwest California, and more widespread snow drought conditions developed in the central and northern Sierra Nevada after a significant mid-winter snowmelt event. Some low elevation SNOTEL stations have lost all snow already. For example, Tahoe City Cross, California melted completely on March 8, 40 days earlier than the long-term median.

All basins in California are currently reporting below median SWE. A major winter storm across the Sierra Nevada from February 15-20, 2026 brought widespread heavy snowfall and increased snow water equivalent (SWE) across the region. The Central Sierra Snow Lab (CSSL) on Donner Pass, California, received more than 100 inches of snow in five days, increasing SWE from 11.5 inches to 19.7 inches during that period. Just a few days later, another, much warmer storm arrived, bringing rain instead of snowfall below 10,000 feet and melting several inches of SWE. Above-normal temperatures afterward led to more snow melt. The CSSL currently is at 50% of median SWE.

Numerous SNOTEL stations across Nevada report record-low SWE, despite active weather and above-normal precipitation in February. Some snow accumulated over the last month but, similar to conditions in California, warm conditions and rain led to mid-winter snowmelt and limited any gains. At 40% of median, the Humboldt River Basin is at its lowest SWE in the SNOTEL record. Numerous stations in northeast Nevada' drain into the Middle Snake-Boise basin, which report record low SWE, currently at 58% of median SWE. Additional basins experiencing record to near-record low median SWE are Upper and Lower Humboldt, Clover Valley and Franklin River, Owyhee, and Snake basins in northern Nevada.

Alaska Snow Conditions

• 50% of stations in Alaska are in snow drought

Based on limited SNOTEL data, snowpack across Alaska is variable. Some areas of snow drought are present in south-central Alaska and along the south slope of the Brooks Range in central Alaska. Basins in south-central are currently at 65-73% of median snow water equivalent (SWE) based on SNOTEL data. The March 1 snow course data, which has a much greater spatial extent than SNOTEL, indicates near-to-above median SWE across much of the Copper River Basin in south-central Alaska, but below-normal SWE in the middle and upper Susitna drainage. The Kenai Mountains and coastal stations along the Prince William Sound received much-below-normal precipitation over the past month, driving the lower snowpack in this region.

Looking Ahead

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Record-breaking high temperatures are forecasted for large parts of the West next week. Further, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center lean toward drier-than-normal conditions for almost all of the West along with a strong probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures through March. Record-breaking snow drought conditions are expected to further deteriorate as snow melt begins much earlier for some. Additional, early snow loss at middle and low elevation stations is likely to occur over the next two weeks. Some basins may melt completely weeks earlier than normal. These forecasted conditions would increase already critical water supply concerns across the West.

Washington and Oregon

An active weather pattern is expected over the next week that could bring substantial snowfall to the Cascades with the possibility of some rain. This precipitation should improve snowpack conditions but will most likely not be enough to alleviate the substantial deficits from snow drought. Forecasted much above normal temperatures are favored for most of Oregon. These conditions could lead to the early melt of snow that does fall.

Water Supply Forecasts

Many regions are likely to see earlier and lower than usual runoff. Water supply forecasts from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center are well-below average, with most sites forecasted to see less than 70% of average season runoff. The forecasted unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is only 35% of average, which would be the 5th driest over the historical record. Seasonal water supply forecasted volumes from the California-Nevada River Forecast Center dropped significantly after the late February snowmelt event in the Sierra Nevada and most locations are forecasted to receive less than 70% of median April-July runoff. In the Northwest, April–September runoff volume forecasts are mostly near- to below-normal, according to the Northwest River Forecast Center. Forecasts from the Missouri River Basin Forecast Center range around 78 percent of average for the Missouri Basin above Fort Peck, Montana. 

Wildfire

Without the presence of snow across the landscape, soils and plants may begin to dry out earlier than usual. Due to the record-breaking warmth this year, high temperatures can lead to increased and rapid dry down of the landscape again leading to an early start to the fire season. An extended fire season is a critical concern but does not guarantee large fires, as ignitions would still be required to generate large wildfires. 
 

For More Information, Contact:

Dan McEvoy 
Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center
daniel.mcevoy@dri.edu

Jason Gerlich
University of Colorado Boulder Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences / NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System 
jason.gerlich@noaa.gov

Amanda Sheffield 
University of Colorado Boulder Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences / NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System 
amanda.sheffield@noaa.gov