Drought Expands Again Across the Southern Plains. Spring Rainfall Will Help.

Key Points

Texas and Oklahoma are currently facing significant drought challenges across multiple regions, affecting rangelands and water supplies and increasing wildfire risk.
Recent rain in east-central Kansas improved conditions, but the rest of the state has been exceptionally dry.
- Western Kansas is Abnormally Dry (D0), and Moderate to Severe Drought (D1-D2) persists and along the Kansas/Oklahoma border.
- Drought in western Kansas is likely to expand and intensify through early spring.
A significant multi-day storm system is bringing heavy rainfall to the South-Central U.S., with more than 3 inches forecast in some locations.
- This is the first substantial storm this spring.
- This precipitation will likely provide some relief to drought-affected areas in Texas, Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas, while the High Plains will remain relatively dry.
Long-range forecasts suggest that temperatures are likely to remain above normal over the next three months.
- Sub-seasonal outlooks favor a warm and wet pattern for the Southern Plains, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts drought improvement in eastern parts of the region in April.
- Late spring and summer is the wettest time of year for the Southern Plains.

This update is based on data available as of Thursday, April 2, 2026 at 8:00 a.m. CT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Current Drought and Forecast Precipitation for the Southern Plains

U.S. Drought Monitor 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Current drought conditions in the Southern plains, according to the March 31 U.S. Drought Monitor. The U.S. Drought Monitor depicts the location and intensity of drought across the country using 5 classifications: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4). The U.S. Drought Monitor is a joint effort of the National Drought Mitigation Center, U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Source(s): NDMC, NOAA, USDA, NASA

7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for April 2–9, 2026. This precipitation forecast map shows the amount of liquid precipitation (in inches) expected to fall, according to the National Weather Service.

Source(s): National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center

U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

13.62

27.44

29.94

21.35

3.15

81.87

Predicted Inches of Precipitation

1.75

Data valid: 03/31/26

Data Valid: 04/02/26

Learn More

1.1 Million Acres

burned across Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska this year

81.9%

of the Southern Plains is experiencing some level of drought

23.1 Million

Southern Plains residents in areas of drought (estimated), according to the U.S. Drought Monitor

Current Conditions and Impacts for the Southern Plains

March is typically fairly dry across the Southern Plains. It begins the transition from a typically drier winter (January and February are the driest months, on average) to a typically wetter late spring and summer (May and June are the wettest months, on average).
- March monthly precipitation totals can have a wide range depending on if the larger spring rains begin in late March or early April.
- So far, spring rain has been very low, and March has been among the driest on record.
Drought conditions have intensified in Texas and Oklahoma over the past month. As of March 31, 89% of Texas and 99% of Oklahoma are in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Recent rain in east-central Kansas improved conditions, but the rest of the state has been exceptionally dry.
In March 2026, significant drought and unseasonably warm, windy conditions impacted agriculture, water supplies, and fire:
- Intensified drought and low commodity prices forced some South Texas farmers to cease operations. Winter wheat and oats were severely stressed, with many fields being "grazed out" by livestock rather than harvested for grain.
- Combined capacity at Lake Corpus Christi and Choke Canyon Reservoirs fell below 9%, the lowest level on record. Along the Rio Grande, Elephant Butte Reservoir is at 12.6%, Amistad is at 31.4%, and Falcon is at 19.2% of capacity.
- As of March 23, 2026, over 1.1 million acres across the High Plains have been burned by wildfires. The Morrill Fire in Nebraska and the Ranger Road Fire in Kansas and Oklahoma were especially destructive and have disrupted the livestock market.
While final numbers are not in yet, for large parts of the region, including western Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle, March is likely to rank as the warmest on record.
- Some weather stations surpassed the previous March record by a full degree (F).
- This follows the warmest winter on record for Oklahoma and Texas and second warmest for Kansas.
- February 2026 was the warmest February on record for Oklahoma, second warmest for Texas, and third warmest for Kansas.
Soil moisture across most of Texas, Oklahoma, and western Kansas is below the 10th percentile.
The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) remained exceptionally high for much of the region in March. Unusually high evaporative demand (the “thirst of the atmosphere”) can lead to drying of the landscape, even when precipitation has been near normal.

30-Day Precipitation Near 0 Inches for Western Texas

Map of the South Central U.S. showing the 30-day percent of normal precipitation as of March 29, 2026. Most of western Kansas, Oklahoma and western to southern Texas are shaded in dark brown, receiving only 0% to 25% of their normal precipitation, while above-normal moisture is limited to parts of the Central Plains. — 30-day percent of average precipitation for February 28–March 29, 2026, compared to historical conditions from 1991–2020. Brown hues indicate below-normal precipitation, and blue/green hues indicate above-normal precipitation. Source: GridMET, UC Merced. Map from Drought.gov.

High Evaporative Demand Compounds Existing Dry Conditions

A 4-week EDDI map for the South Central U.S. valid March 27, 2026, uses a scale from ED0 (yellow) to ED4 (dark red) to show areas where high atmospheric demand is "thirsty" for moisture. Extreme (ED3) to exceptional (ED4) conditions are concentrated in the Texas Panhandle, southern Texas and along the coastal bend region, large areas of western Oklahoma, signaling high fire-weather risk and potential flash drought. The takeaway is that intense atmospheric demand is currently compounding existing moisture stress across the drought-stricken regions of the southern Great Plains. — The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) for the four weeks ending March 27, 2026. EDDI is a drought monitoring tool that shows the anomaly in daily evaporative demand over a given period of time. Evaporative demand is the atmospheric influence on the drying of the landscape, or "the thirst of the atmosphere." Unusually high evaporative demand can lead to moisture stress on the land surface, and ultimately to drought—even when precipitation has been near-normal. EDDI can serve as an indicator of fire-weather risk. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Soil Moisture Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas Is Below the 10th Percentile for March

Map of the South Central U.S. showing soil moisture percentiles for the top 1 meter of soil as of March 31, 2026. Much of central and southern Texas, western Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, are in the bottom 2nd to 5th percentiles (dark red) of historical conditions. — This map shows the moisture content of the top 1 meter of soil as on March 31, 2026, compared to historical conditions from 1981–2013, based on NASA's Short-term Prediction and Transition Center – Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS). Red and orange hues indicate drier soils, while greens and blues indicate greater soil moisture. Source(s): NASA. Map from Drought.gov.

Outlooks and Potential Impacts in the Southern Plains

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks favor warm and possibly wet weather across the Southern Plains, signaling a pattern shift in early April.
- One to three inches of rain fell across central Texas and Oklahoma in the 24 hours leading up to 7 a.m. CT on April 2, the National Weather Service reports. More rain is expected through the first week of April.
- Parts of central and eastern Oklahoma and Texas should see some short-term drought improvement from this shift.
April climate outlooks for the Southern Plains show slightly elevated chances of above-normal precipitation for central Texas and eastern Oklahoma and Kansas with near equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation elsewhere. Above-normal temperatures for the month are likely across the whole region.
Spring is typically a wetter season than winter across the Southern Plains states, and spring weather patterns can make or break a drought. The April to June outlooks show below-normal precipitation is most likely (33-40% chance) for western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A warm spring is likely (more than 50% chance) for most of Texas and Oklahoma, with lower odds (30-40%) favoring above-normal temperatures for Kansas.
An El Niño Watch is in place.
- El Niño conditions, which historically increase chances of wet winters in the Southern Plains, are likely to develop over the summer.
  - El Niño has the strongest influence during the winter months, usually (but not always) bringing wet weather to Texas. Sometimes, when El Niño is present in the summer, there is an eastward shift to the Southwest Monsoon.
- Learn more about what El Niño could mean for drought in the Southern Plains.

Wet Weather in in Early April Should Bring Short-Term Drought Improvement

Map of the 8–14 Day Precipitation Outlook for April 9–15, 2026. Nearly the entire southern and central U.S. is shaded in teal, indicating a 40% to 70% probability of above-normal precipitation. The highest probabilities (60% to 70%) are in southern Texas. Tribal Nation boundaries are marked with gray hatching. The takeaway is a widespread signal for wetter-than-normal conditions across the southern half of the country during this period. — 8-14 day precipitation outlook for April 9–15, 2026, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (brown), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (blue/green) precipitation across the Southern Plains. Valid March 31, 2026. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

April, As A Whole, Slightly Favors Wetter Conditions

A NOAA Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook map for April 2026. It indicates a 33% to 50% probability of above-normal precipitation for a corridor stretching from Texas northeast through central and eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. — 1-month precipitation outlook for April 2026, showing the probability (percent chance) of below-normal (brown), near-normal (gray), and above-normal (blue/green) precipitation across theSouthern Plains. White areas indicate equal chances of above-, near-, or below-normal conditions. Valid March 31, 2026. Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Map from Drought.gov.

Additional Resources

Recent Reports

Additional Resources by State

More local information is available from the following resources:

Your state climatologist
Your state page on Drought.gov:
National Weather Service Drought Information Statements:
- March 31, 2026: Goodland, Kansas
- March 30, 2026: Tulsa, Oklahoma
- March 29, 2026: Dodge City, Kansas
- March 26, 2026: Lake Charles, Louisiana
- March 25, 2026: Fort Worth/Dallas, Texas
- March 22, 2026: Wichita, Kansas
- March, 19, 2026: Brownsville, Texas
- March 19, 2026: Shreveport, Louisiana
- March 6, 2026: El Paso, Texas/Santa Teresa, New Mexico
- March 5, 2026: Austin/San Antonio, Texas
- March 5, 2026: Houston/Galveston, Texas
- March 3, 2026: Corpus Christi, Texas

More state and regional information is available from the following resources:

To report or view local drought impact information:

Prepared By

Joel Lisonbee
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences/University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System, Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System

John Nielsen-Gammon and B.J. Baule
Office of the Texas State Climatologist, Southern Regional Climate Center, Texas A&M University

Gary McManus
Oklahoma Climatological Survey, State Climatologist

Matt Sittel
Kansas State Climate Office

Special Thanks

This Drought Status Update is issued in partnership between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and partners to communicate a potential area of concern for drought expansion and/or development within the Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System region based on recent conditions and the upcoming forecast. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Status Updates as conditions evolve. NIDIS is an interagency program within the Climate Program Office, which is part of NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.

Drought Status Update for the Southern Plains