Snow Drought Conditions Summary

This update is based on data available as of Monday, February 2, 2026 at 12:00 a.m. PT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving. 

Quantifying snow drought values is an ongoing research effort. Here, we define snow drought as snow water equivalent (SWE) at or below the 20th percentile, which is a baseline guided by partner expertise and research. Note that reporting of SWE by Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations may be unavailable or delayed due to technical, weather or other issues, which may affect snow drought depiction in this update. 

Current Conditions

The start of the water year (October–December 2025) saw normal to above-normal precipitation, but due to record-breaking warm temperatures, most of this precipitation fell as rain instead of snow. This wet, rainy start to the water year transitioned to much drier conditions over the past three to four weeks across the Western United States. Many SNOTEL (Snow Telemetry) stations in Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Colorado, and Oregon reported their lowest or second-lowest January precipitation for their respective periods of record. January precipitation was well below normal across most of the West, with the exception of southern Arizona and New Mexico.

The mid-winter dry spell coincided with above-normal temperatures and sunny days, preventing snow accumulation and leading to snowmelt in some places. January historically brings significant snow accumulation across the West. 

Jump to conditions for your region:

• Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming (Rocky Mountains) Snow Conditions
• Arizona and New Mexico Snow Conditions
• Oregon and Washington Snow Conditions
• California and Nevada Snow Conditions
• Alaska Snow Conditions

January Turns Dry, Further Intensifying Snow Drought

Stations in Every Western State Are Experiencing Record Low Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Northern Rocky Mountains

• 46% of stations in Montana are in snow drought
• 68% of stations in Idaho are in snow drought
• 36% of stations in Wyoming are in snow drought

Most basins in the region are reporting below-median snow water equivalent (SWE). Historically, January is one of the snowiest months for Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. However, over the last 30 days there has been minimal snow accumulation due to a mid-winter dry period. Low -elevation snowpack conditions have worsened due to dry and warm conditions across the three states.

Snowpack conditions in Idaho are currently the lowest in the region, with widespread snow drought and basins ranging from 51% to 84% of median SWE. Most of the lower-elevation snowpack has melted, and the only stations with near- or above-median SWE are at higher elevations. Many locations in southwest Idaho and the Idaho panhandle are reporting record low SWE (based on SNOTEL records going back to the early 1980s).

In Montana, conditions are a bit better, with SWE in most basins at 75% to 85% of median. Many basins in Montana had above-median snowpack at the start of January, but are now reporting below-median SWE. Several locations across the state are reporting (or approaching) record low SWE. In Wyoming, five stations are reporting record low SWE, and lowland snow cover in the state is at its lowest area extent and depth in at least 20 years. SWE is much below median in the mountains of central and southeast Wyoming, while basins in western Wyoming have close to median SWE.

Central Rocky Mountains

• 80% of stations in Utah are in snow drought
• 95% of stations in Colorado are in snow drought

Colorado and Utah are reporting record low statewide average snow water equivalent (SWE), as severe snow drought worsened over the past month. Most basins in the region are reporting less than 60% of median SWE. SWE declined in January due to extremely dry conditions and above-average temperatures. Utah received little to no precipitation over the past three weeks, and precipitation in Colorado has been much below median. The Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes major rivers such as the Upper and Lower Green, Yampa-White, Gunninson, San Juan, and Colorado, is reporting record low average SWE. The White-Yampa, Lower Green, and Gunnison Basins are reporting 64%, 60%, and 57% of median SWE, respectively.

Given the current record low snowpack conditions, water supply forecasts are already reflecting the low likelihood of reaching median peak SWE in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The January forecast from the National Weather Service’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) indicates unregulated inflows into Lake Powell are expected to be approximately 60% of normal for water year total inflows and near 43% of normal for April-July inflows. These forecasts are subject to change as the snow accumulation season progresses. CBRFC will host another water supply forecast briefing on February 6, 2026. 

Arizona and New Mexico Snow Conditions

• 60% of stations in Arizona are in snow drought
• 81% of stations in New Mexico are in snow drought

Snow drought remains widespread across Arizona and New Mexico. All basins in those states are reporting less than 50% of median snow water equivalent (SWE). Southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico received above-normal precipitation in January, but SWE remains much below normal as warm temperatures led to precipitation falling as rain instead of snow. A prolonged cool and wet period would be necessary for a significant improvement in snowpack.

Some small to moderate storms in January increased SWE in the mountains, but the increases were insufficient to offset the large deficits that have been building throughout the season. The Salt, Verde, and Little Colorado Basins in Arizona are currently at 17%, 19%, and 31% of median SWE, respectively. In New Mexico, the Upper Rio Grande, Rio Grande-Elephant Butte, and Upper Canadian Basins are at 48%, 40%, and 28% of median SWE, respectively. These basins in Arizona and New Mexico are major water supply basins. The current snow drought continues to heighten water supply concerns for reservoirs along the already depleted San Juan and Rio Grande Basins.

Oregon and Washington Snow Conditions

• 82% of stations in Washington are in snow drought
• 86% of stations in Oregon are in snow drought

Oregon’s current statewide average snow water equivalent (SWE) is its lowest on record at 2.9 inches (based on SNOTEL records going back to the early 1980s). This is nearly 30% lower than the previous record in 2015, when statewide SWE in early February was 4.0 inches. Washington’s statewide average SWE is also exceptionally low, at the 5th percentile of historical conditions. Snow drought is widespread across both states. Several SNOTEL stations in the Oregon Cascade Range, in the Blue Mountains and Harney Basin of eastern Oregon, and in the central Cascades in Washington are reporting record low SWE. Furthermore, emphasizing the significant snowpack deficits, nearly all SNOTEL stations in Oregon, most locations south of U.S. Route 2 in Washington, and all stations in the Olympic Mountains in Washington are reporting less than 50% of median SWE.

These conditions make recovery to median peak SWE difficult at many locations. Abnormally warm and dry conditions prevailed through January except in the far northern Cascade Range of Washington. Temperatures were well above average for much of the month, especially at high elevations, with stable atmospheric conditions and strong temperature inversions often present. In November and December, Washington and Oregon experienced snow drought despite precipitation, as historically warm temperatures caused precipitation to fall mainly as rain rather than snow at high elevations. In contrast, during the last three weeks of January, the Pacific Northwest experienced an intense and persistent dry spell. The combination of very little precipitation and abnormally warm conditions at higher elevations was the primary cause of intensifying snow drought conditions in January. 

California and Nevada Snow Conditions

• 37% of stations in California are in snow drought
• 77% of stations in Nevada are in snow drought

Snow water equivalent (SWE) in northern California and the Sierra Nevada has fallen to below median. Little to no precipitation has fallen since early January, and above-normal temperatures and generally clear sky conditions led to mid-winter snowmelt and sublimation. Snowpack conditions in northwest California (Trinity and Salmon Mountains) are the lowest in the state, with SWE generally less than 50% of median. SWE in the Sierra Nevada is moderately higher due to strong storms in late December and early January that produced the majority of the current snowpack. Basins on the east slope of the Sierra Nevada are reporting 61-81% of median SWE, while basins on the west slope are reporting 46-92% of median SWE. Current SWE values generally increase from north to south in the Sierra Nevada, reflecting both storm tracks and higher elevations that received snow and not rain.

Snow drought conditions are more severe in central and northern Nevada compared to California, with many locations reporting record low SWE. The Central Nevada Desert Basins and Black Rock Desert Basin are also experiencing low snowpack, with SWE at 44% and 20% of median, respectively. The Humboldt Basin, which provides surface water for major agricultural areas, is currently reporting record low SWE at 32% of median. The Humboldt River has been flowing well below normal since the start of the water year (October 1, 2025). Forecasted April-July streamflows are currently expected to be less than 50% of normal. 

Alaska Snow Conditions

• 35% of stations in Alaska are in snow drought

After a prolonged dry stretch during most of December and early January, the second half of January brought some storm activity and increases in snow water equivalent (SWE) in Southcentral Alaska. SWE is variable across the state, with some stations below and some above median. In Southcentral Alaska, SWE is currently 75%, 76%, and 83% of median across the Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and Knik Arm Basins, respectively. Concerns for snow drought are present in Southcentral Alaska, as well as Southeast Alaska south of Juneau, where reports suggest higher-than-usual snowline and below-normal snowpack at higher elevations.

The south slope of the central Brooks Range is reporting much-below-median snowpack, with the Koyukuk River Basin currently at 47% of median SWE (based on two SNOTEL stations and several snow courses). In Interior Alaska, the two monitored basins, Beaver Creek-Yukon River and Tanana River, are reporting 126% and 124% of median SWE, respectively. 

Looking Ahead

A pattern shift is expected across the West. The National Weather Service’s outlooks for the next two weeks favor above-normal precipitation over the Western United States. However, warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored, except along the West Coast. Time is running short on reaching average peak median SWE, which occurs in March and April in most western basins. Temperatures will play a major role in what impact, if any, this pattern shift will have on the current snow drought across the West. Snow cover provides insulation from cold and variable temperatures. A lack of snow cover may lead to early drying of the landscape, which could result in a longer fire season or reduce runoff efficiency as snow melts. 

For More Information, Contact:

Dan McEvoy 
Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center
daniel.mcevoy@dri.edu

Jason Gerlich
University of Colorado Boulder Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences / NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System 
jason.gerlich@noaa.gov

Amanda Sheffield 
University of Colorado Boulder Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences / NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System 
amanda.sheffield@noaa.gov